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CROP PROGRESS REPORT – September 10, 2024

This report may not be reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part without permission of the Canadian Malting Barley Technical Centre.

The barley harvest is just past the halfway point on the prairies, with the more southern areas getting into the later stages while the northern half of the growing region isn’t quite as far along. The overall pace is running at or ahead of normal in most areas. Weather has been mostly conducive to good advancement, although occasional showers have caused temporary delays. If the weather continues to cooperate the barley crop will be essentially fully harvested in the next couple of weeks.   
The latest provincial government reports show the Alberta barley harvest at 50% complete, compared to 38% on average. Saskatchewan was estimated to be 52% complete, right at the average. Manitoba was 49% complete.   

Hot and dry conditions during the summer are showing up in harvest results. A large portion of western Canada saw below-normal rainfall while also experiencing a period of very high temperatures. This caused yield expectations to get pared back after a very strong start to the growing season. It’s been common to hear reports of yields not matching what had been anticipated based on the plant stand, as well as low bushel weights and high protein content. Conditions have been variable, even within regions, which has resulted in a wide range of outcomes for both yield and quality. Farmers have been submitting harvest samples and waiting for results. The overall quality of the crop won’t be better known until samples have been analyzed on a widespread basis, and initial indications suggest there is enough good quality barley to meet maltster and exporter needs. Processors should be prepared for lower plump and test weights than normal.      
The map shows a departure from normal rainfall over the past 90 days, which represents most of the growing season for barley. Much of western Canada saw below-normal rainfall, although conditions are not as dire as in recent years in some parts of southern Alberta and southwest Saskatchewan. Very high temperatures further added to crop stress, which resulted in yield expectations coming down relative to expectations early in the season. However, yield and quality results vary widely based on local conditions.   

Statistics Canada’s initial estimate for Canadian barley production was 7.47 mln tonnes. The figure was derived using a model-based approach incorporating satellite data to the end of July. Some private estimates suggest the crop may be larger, perhaps closer to 8.0-8.5 mln tonnes. Statistics Canada will provide another production estimate on September 16th, while the advancement of harvest will also give more field results to assess yield and quality in the next two weeks.    
The initial Statistics Canada estimate for barley production was 7.47 mln tonnes. Some private estimates suggest the crop may be a little larger, perhaps closer to 8.0-8.5 mln tonnes.     

ALBERTA  

The latest Alberta Agriculture crop report released September 6th (conditions as of September 3rd) showed that warm weather has allowed harvest to advance at a rapid pace. There were some minor rain delays, but they were generally short-lived. Harvest for all crops is ahead of average, including barley at 50%, compared to a 5-year average of 25% complete. Surface soil moisture remains below normal across the province, with 42.2% of the area rated as Fair and 23.7% labelled Poor, compared to a 5-year average of 28.8% and 19.1%, respectively. While that no longer has an impact on 2024 production, it could create concerns for next season if moisture doesn’t improve going into winter. 

The Alberta Agriculture yield estimate for the province from the August 27th report put barley at 58.6 bu/acre. This is just below the initial Statistics Canada figure for the province of 60.2 bu/acre. The high degree of variability, even within a relatively small area, makes it challenging to project a yield for the province as a whole at this point. 

  Alberta Dryland Yield Estimates as of August 27, 2024   Source: Alberta Agriculture, Weekly Crop Report, August 27, 2024

Alberta Agriculture’s barley estimate from the August 27th update was 58.6 bu/acre. This is just below the initial Statistics Canada projection of 60.2 bu/acre.    

Southern Region (South of Calgary, Strathmore, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Foremost):
The total harvest for the region was estimated at 55% complete, ahead of the average of 40%. Barley was estimated at 73% finished. The province is estimating barley to yield 54.1 bu/acre for the region. Yields for all crops in the Southern Region will be up after several years of extremely dry conditions.   
2024 Barley harvest near Milk River, Alberta.  

Central Region (Airdrie, Coronation, Oyen, Barrhead, Edmonton, Leduc, Drayton Valley):
Showers caused some minor delays in the region, but harvest still has been making good progress, estimated 20% to 40% for all crops, with the southern portion of the region further along than the more northern parts. All areas are ahead of the normal pace. Barley was reported at 20% to 60% complete.  

The province is estimating yields of between 58 – 65 bu/acre across the region as a whole, although there are individual reports of much higher results, including over 100 bu/acre. Bushel weights are variable, with some reported as being very light while other areas are showing good quality. 

Peace River Region (Fairview, Falher, Grande Prairie, Valleyview):
Warm and dry conditions have allowed for good harvest progress in the region, at an estimated 24% complete for all crops, compared to a 5-year average of just 6%. Barley was shown at 35% complete. 

The province is projecting a barley yield of 56.3 bu/acre for the region. Reports indicate a very wide range in yields depending on local moisture conditions, with results ranging from as low as 20 bu/acre to up to 100 bu/acre in the best areas. Bushel weights are also variable depending on local growing conditions. Protein is also generally above average, although it’s dependent on conditions in the area.      SASKATCHEWAN

The Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture’s most recent crop report released September 5th (representing conditions as of September 2nd) indicated harvest has been progressing quickly throughout most of the province. Favourable weather forecasts should allow for continued rapid advancement in the coming weeks. Barley was estimated at 52% harvested for the province overall. Up to 16% of the crop is ready to straight combine, with 7% in swath and 25% standing. Some precipitation over the previous week caused temporary delays in the northern half of the province, although not to the extent that it was a significant setback. The southern part of the province was dry,
allowing for rapid advancement. 

   
Source: Saskatchewan Agriculture, Weekly Crop Report, September 5th, 2024

Parts of the northern half of the province saw precipitation that caused some temporary harvest delays, while the southern half was dry and able to make rapid progress. Harvest for the province overall is running just ahead of the normal pace.    The Ministry estimated the province’s barley yield at 63.0 bu/acre. This compares with the initial Statistics Canada estimate of 58.8 bu/acre. The report indicates that crop yields and quality have been negatively impacted throughout many regions by high temperatures during critical growing stages, although some growers are reporting yields coming in a little better than expected given the conditions. Some lodging has also been reported in some areas. Reports of light bushel weight and high protein were common in the earlier fields taken off, although that has become somewhat less frequent as harvest has progressed.   Southeast Region (Moosomin, Weyburn, Moose Jaw, Regina, Qu’Appelle, Minton):
Farmers have made considerable progress in the region over the past week. Harvesting of all crops was 47% complete as of the last update, which is ahead of the normal pace. Barley was estimated to be 69% complete, with yields indicated to be around 63 bu/acre, although yields are reported to vary throughout the region as the heat and dryness impacted crops. Farmers are waiting for sample results, with expectations that quality is favourable in areas that saw better-growing conditions. Rain would be welcome once harvest is complete to help replenish soil moisture levels. 

Northeast Regions (Foam Lake, Davidson, Canora, Tisdale, Melfort, Humboldt, Cudworth, Prince Albert):
Periodic showers caused some harvest delays, although there continues to be progress. Over 20% of the total crop was taken off as of September 2nd, just ahead of average. Barley is estimated to be just over 50% harvested. Yields are estimated at around 76 bu/acre for barley, although vary considerably, with some individual reports of over 100 bu/acre. Lodging has been reported, which is creating some challenges and slowing the pace of harvest. Anecdotal reports suggest the newer varieties with good standability did relatively better than some of the older varieties.  

Some areas indicate lighter test weights and high protein, but that varies within the region. Rain during crop ripening may have caused some pre-harvest sprouting in the later maturing fields, although that isn’t believed to be a widespread problem. Farmers are waiting for sample results to get a better assessment of their crop quality.     

Harvesting barley near Rosthern, SK August 23rd.  Yields running 90-100 bushels per acre were above average however significant lodging made combining slow and difficult.  

Southwest Regions (Assiniboia, Gravelbourg, Swift Current, Maple Creek, Leader, Rosetown, Kindersley):
The region has made substantial harvest progress as there was limited moisture to slow operations. Harvest of all crops was at 73% as of the latest report, up 30% from the previous week and ahead of average, although progress isn’t as far in the more northern parts of the region. Barley is 78% harvested, with an estimated yield of 43 bu/acre in the more southern areas, with better yields shown further north. Quality and yield have been impacted by the lack of moisture and high temperatures during the season. Topsoil moisture is shown as 41% short and 51% very short, which could lend itself to early concerns for next season if there isn’t late-season precipitation. 

Northwest Regions (North Battleford, Meadow Lake, Maidstone, Lloydminster):
Rainfall has caused some harvest delays, with the region estimated to be 19% complete for all crops, just ahead of the average pace. Barley is reported at 32% complete. Yields are variable based on local moisture totals in the region during the season, along with pockets of extensive hail loss. Barley is averaging an estimated yield of 65 bu/acre.     

MANITOBA

The Manitoba barley harvest continues to move along, with the province reported at 49% complete as of September 2nd. Barley yields are reported from 90 – 115 bu/acre, although vary based on local conditions. 
  Manitoba Spring Wheat Conditions by Region as of August 6, 2024  
Source: Manitoba Agriculture, Weekly Crop Report September 2nd, 2024

Manitoba’s barley harvest was 49% complete as of September 2nd and has made further progress since then. The Central area was the most advanced, while the Eastern region was still in the early stages. 

Western region (Brandon, Wawanesa, Parkland):
The southern part of the region has generally been experiencing good harvest weather, although heavy dew has often resulted in a slower start in the morning. Yields are described as mostly average, and quality is fairly good. There are reports of some minor chitting in later harvest barley. Barley harvest was shown at 50% complete in the southern areas, while the more northern parts were closer to 20% as of the last provincial government update.

Red River Valley Region (Portage la Prairie, Altona, Carman, Morden, Treherne):
Conditions have been favourable for good harvest progress in the region, with barley shown at 75% completed as of early September. Yields were reported in the range of 90 – 115 bu/acre, and up to as much as 130 bu/acre. Favourable weather should allow the remainder of the crop to get taken off shortly. Farmers are waiting for samples to be graded. 

Eastern region (St. Pierre-Jolys, Steinbach, Beausejour, Interlake):
Harvest progress has been disrupted in the region due to rain, although quickly resumed when conditions cleared. Barley harvest is in the early stages in the eastern part of the region, while the Interlake was closer to 40%. Initial yields are reported at between 90 to 120 bu/acre.      

  • Jul 26, 2024

    CROP PROGRESS REPORT – JULY 23, 2024

    This report may not be reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part without permission of the Canadian Malting Barley Technical Centre.

    Crop conditions remain variable across western Canada, but overall yield potential is still above average. In recent weeks parts of central and northern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan have seen minimal moisture, resulting in soils drying out. Crops are showing some signs of stress in these regions. On the other hand, rainfall has continued in the eastern prairies, keeping soils saturated. 

    After a cooler than normal June, temperatures through July have increased significantly. The warmer weather has been beneficial to crop development, and while still generally considered behind normal in certain areas, growth has pushed closer to average. Regions in the west that haven’t received meaningful rainfall in recent weeks are getting concerned with soil moisture levels amid the high temperatures, while eastern areas welcomed the heat to aid crop development and dry down excess moisture. Wildfire smoke has limited some of the heat stress across the prairies. 

    After below normal temperatures through much of June, daytime temperatures in the past two weeks have warmed significantly. This is having a negative effect in those areas where soil moisture is below optimal. The hot and drier conditions are speeding up crop development in nearly all regions. 

    Despite the recent heat and some drier weather in western regions, crop conditions are still considered favorable in most areas, and yields continue to present average-to-above-average potential. The earliest crops are now turning color with the beginning of harvest only a few weeks away. 

    ALBERTA

    Recent high temperatures affected crops in the province, either leading to further progression where moisture is better or by adding to stress in the dry regions. Generally, crops are starting to show signs of heat stress, such as coming out of flower early or dropping tillers. Without meaningful moisture in the short term, continued hot weather could further deteriorate crop ratings and yield expectations.  

    Alberta Sub-Soil Moisture Ratings as of July 16, 2024

    Source: Alberta Agriculture, Weekly Crop Report, July 16, 2024

    Subsoil moisture has deteriorated in parts of Alberta over the past few weeks. The portion of the province where soil moisture is rated as poo’ is now above the 5-year and 10-year average levels. Central regions of the province are the driest, followed by north west areas of the province.  

    Alberta’s barley crop was rated 73% Good/Excellent as of July 16th, down from 76.9% two weeks ago, indicating the heat and lack of rainfall has taken some toll even as overall strong yield potential remains. The ratings by region reflect the different moisture situations. Condition rating decreases were most notable in the central and north east regions, with the crop now rated at 67.1% and 61.4% Good/Excellent, respectively. There were declines in the Peace (78.1%) and north west (75.7%) regions as well. The southern region of the province was the only one to report an improvement in barley conditions, now rated at 82.1%. Overall barley crop ratings in Alberta remain well above last year (42.2% Good/Excellent), and higher than the 10-year average (65.5% Good/Excellent). 

    Southern Region (South of Calgary, Strathmore, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Foremost):

    Limited rainfall and hot temperatures have significantly advanced crop growth over the past two weeks. Barley crops are beginning to turn color but still require additional moisture in order to help heads fill and maintain yield potential. Soil moisture is rated at 49% Good/Excellent, down from 62% last week. Barley ratings improved in the region despite the drop in soil moisture, now rated at 82.1% Good/Excellent, up from 78.7% in the last report. Rainfall is needed over the next week to avoid yield loss. 

    Copeland turning colour near Milk River, AB July 20th, 2024.

    Central Region (Airdrie, Coronation, Oyen, Barrhead, Edmonton, Leduc, Drayton Valley,):

    The hot weather is starting to show its effect on crops. Cereals are still “hanging on” and yield potential remains above average today, but moisture will be needed to aid the filling of crops. Some areas received spotty showers that helped surface soil moisture increase from 58% to 60% Good/Excellent, however 35.6% of the region still has subsoil moisture levels rated as poor.  

    Barley heading out near Sylvan Lake, AB July 19th, 2024. Additional rainfall will be needed to fill heads. 

    Peace River Region (Fairview, Falher, Grande Prairie, Valleyview):

    Hot and dry conditions for the past two weeks have taken their toll on the crop.  Rain is needed soon to avoid further deterioration of yield potential. Sporadic thunderstorms have provided some minor relief in isolated spots, but widespread rain hasn’t occurred.  

    SASKATCHEWAN

    The Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture’s most recent crop report as of July 15th indicated warmer weather and reduced rainfall have accelerated crop development throughout the province. Producers, especially in the south, are hoping for moisture in the days ahead to help support development and reduce yield loss. Isolated storms brought rainfall to some pockets of the province, but most regions received only trace amounts over the past week.  Topsoil moisture has started to decline, now rated at 4% surplus, 77% adequate, 19% short/very short. The warmer weather has aided development with 73% of spring cereals now considered ahead of or at normal development, while 27% of the crop is still behind.  Forecasts are calling for more heat in the days ahead, which will cause deterioration if moisture is not received. Only minor crop damage has been reported due to pests (gophers and grasshoppers) so far this season, while there has been some isolated damage from hail and wind. Fungicides continue to be applied to suppress disease development.

    Source: Saskatchewan Agriculture, Weekly Crop Report, July 15th, 2024

    After a cool start to the growing season, temperatures have increased in July, depleting soil moisture in some regions but advancing crop development. Hot temperatures are expected to continue in the near term.

    Barley conditions in Saskatchewan improved modestly since the last report, now at 90% Good/Excellent, compared to 87.5% previously. This is well above the 10-year average of 61.6% and last year’s rating at this time of 47% Good/Excellent. However, heat has taken its toll since the last crop rating, especially in southern regions where soil moisture is generally lower. Nevertheless, overall yield expectations are still above average today. 

    Southeast Region (Moosomin, Weyburn, Moose Jaw, Regina, Qu’Appelle, Minton).

    Limited rainfall occurred throughout the region over the past week, while at the same time temperatures have increased. This has allowed for an improvement in crop advancement, although it is still generally behind normal. Excess moisture was a concern early in the season, but the recent hot weather has alleviated it. Cropland topsoil moisture is currently rated as 10% surplus, 69% adequate and 21% short/very short. Areas of damage were minor over the past week, with isolated incidents of hail, gophers, and grasshoppers. Producers are monitoring pest and disease pressure, and spraying is ongoing. 

    Northeast Regions (Foam Lake, Davidson, Canora, Tisdale, Melfort, Humboldt, Cudworth, Prince Albert).Rainfall was variable throughout the region, ranging from trace amounts 40 mm. Hot temperatures have generally depleted topsoil moisture over the past week, with levels currently rated as 6% surplus, 88% adequate and 6% short. Recent warmer weather has allowed for quicker development, with more crops moving closer to the normal stages for this time of year. Spring cereals are now 63% ahead of normal or at normal development. The region recently experienced a windstorm that flattened crops in some areas. Barley showed varying degrees of lodging but has since mostly recovered. Disease has been noted in some areas and producers are applying fungicides. Hot weather is expected to continue, and additional moisture will be needed to maintain yield potential. 

    A recent windstorm resulted in lodging of some barley crops on this farm in the region north of Saskatoon, although newer varieties stood well. AAC Prairie left, RGT Asteroid right. Mid-July 2024, near Rosthern SK.

    Southwest Regions (Assiniboia, Gravelbourg, Swift Current, Maple Creek, Leader, Rosetown, Kindersley).

    Limited rain fell throughout much of the region over the past week. Reduced precipitation and increased temperatures have depleted topsoil moisture. Currently, topsoil moisture is rated as 51% adequate and 49% short/very short. Crop development remains mostly unchanged compared to previous weeks, with the majority of crops falling into the normal stages for this time of year. Spring cereals are 78% ahead of or at their normal development pace. Crop stress has increased from two weeks ago. Given the hot temperatures and limited moisture, yield potential is at risk of decreasing if rain isn’t received soon. At this point yields are still anticipated to be above average, aside from pockets that have seen below average moisture. 

    Northwest Regions (North Battleford, Meadow Lake, Maidstone, Lloydminster).

    Rainfall was variable throughout the northwest over the past week and reductions to topsoil moisture were noted. Soil moisture is rated at 1% surplus, 86% adequate and 13% short this week. Recent warmer weather has allowed for quicker crop development with more crops moving closer to their normal stages. Spring cereals are rated at 66% ahead of or at their normal pace, while 34% are behind. Areas within the region reported minor to moderate damage from hail, wind and heat. Damage from earlier excess rain in low lying areas is still present in parts of the region, while others are showing stress from reduced moisture.

    MANITOBA

    The Manitoba Agriculture crop report as of July 16th showed variable rainfall during the past week, ranging from trace amounts to over 60 mm. Overall the province is maintaining wet or optimal soil moisture conditions, continuing the pattern seen all season. The recent hot weather helped to significantly advance crop growth. Most spring cereals range from flag to soft dough stages.  Spring cereals are described as mostly in good condition, but there are pockets that have suffered from excess moisture. 

    Manitoba Spring Wheat Conditions as of July 16th, 2024

    Source: Manitoba Agriculture, Weekly Crop Report, July 16th, 2024

    Manitoba doesn’t put out a crop rating for barley, specifically. Spring wheat ratings can be used as a reasonable proxy for cereal crops in general. Overall ratings are relatively high, and better than last year at this time. 

    Western region (Brandon, Wawanesa, Parkland).

    Rain and hailstorms occurred over the past week with some isolated damage reported. Warm and humid conditions have advanced development. Both day and nighttime highs have been elevated. Wet fields pushed farmers to aerial spraying fungicide as disease pressure increased due to warm temperatures and high humidity. Barley crops are in the heading to early milk stage in the region.

    Barley beginning to turn color near Wawanesa, MB in mid-July. Early harvest is expected to start in two weeks’ time.

    Red River Valley Region (Portage la Prairie, Altona, Carman, Morden, Treherne).

    Warmer temperatures this week allowed soils to dry, and standing water has mostly disappeared. However, crops in low lying areas are still showing visible water stress, along with dead spots in some fields. Over the past week rainfall has been spotty and minimal, which has been beneficial. Higher temperatures allowed for swift crop development. Staging varies greatly across the region depending on when the crop was seeded.  Early seeded barley is at the milk to soft dough stage, while later planted cereals are in the flag leaf stage.  Aerial spraying of fungicide is ongoing. 

    Eastern region (St. Pierre-Jolys, Steinbach, Beausejour, Interlake).

    Warmer temperatures were welcomed in the region, reducing some of the stress from excess moisture and helping advance crop development. Crops in low areas continue to show yellowing or dead spots. Wet fields are limiting fungicide applications, forcing producers to use aerial spraying in many cases. Lodging has been an issue in areas where thunderstorms have been present. Most barley crops are headed and flowering.