Category: Members Market Updates

Category: Members Market Updates

FINAL BARLEY HARVEST REPORT

22/11/2024

This report may not be reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part without permission of the Canadian Malting Barley Technical Centre.

By early October, farmers in western Canada had essentially wrapped up the barley harvest, with only a few small pockets remaining in parts of northern Alberta and eastern Saskatchewan. 

In most regions, the season started favourably as farmers seeded crops early, particularly in the western Prairies, where dry conditions allowed them to get into their fields without difficulty. Good rains in May and June ensured the growing season got off to a good start, and farmers rated crop conditions quite high throughout the spring and early summer. 

The map shows the percentage of average precipitation from April 30 to July 1. Good rains throughout the early growing season generated optimism, although in some areas the rains delayed seeding, and some farmers were still planting crops in early June.  

In July, as much of western Canada moved into a hot and dry weather pattern, crop prospects shifted. Yield forecasts dropped from early expectations, and quality was negatively impacted in some regions. 

In July, dry and exceptionally hot conditions in many areas of western Canada transformed crop prospects. Expectations for bumper yields shifted to more moderate—and in some cases poor—prospects for yield and quality, as average precipitation from July 1 to August 31 fell well below average. 

Mid-August precipitation caused headaches for farmers in some central prairie areas, resulting in pre-harvest sprouting. However, the overall damage was relatively limited. Farmers harvested the bulk of the barley in western Canada between mid-August and mid-September under relatively dry conditions.

Ultimately, the dry, hot conditions in July posed the major challenge for this year’s barley crop, which affected crops in southwestern Saskatchewan, as well as southern and central Alberta in particular. Barley from these regions tended to have thinner kernels with high protein content.  

Overall, there has also been a great deal of variability in 2024 harvest results, both across and within regions, and even at the individual farm level. In addition to local weather conditions, some reasons for the variability included timing of planting, which crops preceded barley the year prior, and other specific factors such as whether manure was applied to a specific field. 

On September 6th, Statistics Canada updated its estimate for Canadian barley production to 7.6 mln tonnes, slightly above their initial figure for the season. Yield is projected at 61.0 bu/acre, the second lowest in a decade. The figure was derived using a model-based approach incorporating data to the end of August. Some private estimates suggest the crop may be larger than the latest Statistics Canada figure, potentially 8.0-8.5 mln tonnes. The next production estimate from Statistics Canada, based on farmer surveys, will be released in early December. 

Canada Barley Production 2020-2024 

Source: Statistics Canada, Sept. 6, 2024 
The most recent Statistics Canada estimate for barley production is 7.60 mln tonnes, up slightly from their initial projection. Some private estimates suggest the crop may be larger, although production will end up on the lower end of the past 10 years.   

ALBERTA 

In its final 2024 crop report on October 22, Alberta Agriculture estimated the barley harvest 99.4% complete as of October 22nd, ahead of average. The report indicated overall crop quality to be below normal, with 26 percent estimated to be grading malt, compared to 32 percent as a 5-year average, and 45 percent at 1CW, down from an average of 55 percent. 

Estimate of Crop Harvest as of October 22, 2024

Source: Alberta Agriculture, Weekly Crop Report, September 24th, 2024. 

The last yield estimate from the provincial government was 57.2 bu/acre, down from 61.4 bu/acre in 2023, with central Alberta having the lowest average yields of 52.6 bu/acre (70.2 bu/acre in 2023). Statistics Canada estimates Alberta’s average barley yields of 60.4 bu/acre for the province. 

Alberta Dryland Yield Estimates as of October 22, 2024 

Source: Alberta Agriculture, Weekly Crop Report, September 24th, 2024.

Alberta Agriculture’s barley estimate from the October 22nd update was 57.2 bu/acre, below the Statistics Canada projection of 60.4 bu/acre.   According to Statistics Canada, Alberta farmers seeded 9% fewer acres of barley in 2024. With a projected drop in yields, production is set to drop 15% to 4.026 mln tonnes, well below the previous 5-year average of 4.8 mln tonnes. 

Alberta Barley Production 2020-2024 

Source: Statistics Canada, Sept. 6, 2024  

SASKATCHEWAN

By October 21, the Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture reported that crops were 100% in the bin. Farmers in the southwest and southeast regions began harvesting in early August. The early start allowed producers to get the crop off in good time and complete other fieldwork before freeze-up. Producers were looking for more rain this fall and a lot of snow over winter to improve moisture conditions for next spring.

Source: Saskatchewan Agriculture, Weekly Crop Report, September 30th, 2024.
Rainfall varied across Saskatchewan during the season, with the northeast half of the province generally seeing more precipitation than the southwest half, although there were differences within local regions as well.  

Overall, most crops in Saskatchewan yielded above the 10-year average, but regional yields varied based on the rainfall received during critical parts of the growing season. Only durum, oats, canola, and mustard yielded lower than the 10-year average.

The final yield estimate from the Ministry for barley was 63.4 bu/acre (10-year average 59.6).  Statistics Canada is showing a yield of 61.0 bu/acre for the province in their last update.  The government estimated the quality for the province’s barley crop at 26% malt, 53% 1CW and 21% 2CW/sample. This is below the 10-year average for malt (30%).  

According to Statistics Canada, Saskatchewan farmers seeded 17% fewer acres of barley in 2024.  With a projected increase in yields compared with 2023, production is set to drop just 12% to 2.83 mln tonnes, but still well below the previous 5-year average of 3.6 mln tonnes. 

Saskatchewan Barley Production 2020-2024 

Source: Statistics Canada, Sept. 6, 2024  

MANITOBA

By the end of September, Manitoba farmers had largely completed the barley harvest, a little ahead of average. Manitoba Agriculture estimated barley yields between 80 and 120 bu/acre, well above Statistics Canada’s estimate of 70.1 bu/acre for the province. Heavy rain slowed some of the late-harvested grains and impacted the quality of barley still in the field, although this affected only a relatively small portion of the provincial crop. Overall, malting barley quality is reported to be good, although higher levels of fusarium have been noted this year compared with the recent past.

According to Statistics Canada, Manitoba farmers seeded 25% fewer acres of barley in 2024.  With a projected drop in yields, production is estimated at 440,000 tonnes, down 34% from 665,000 tonnes last year and well below the previous 5-year average of 595,000 tonnes. 

Manitoba Barley Production 2020-2024 

Source: Statistics Canada, Sept. 6, 2024 

QUALITY UPDATE

Dry, hot conditions in July in many parts of the prairies have led to mixed quality in the 2024 malting barley crop. The extreme July weather—depending on the timing of seeding and sub-soil moisture—reduced yields, produced thinner barley, and increased protein content in the impacted regions, particularly in the western Prairies, including southwest Saskatchewan as well as south and central Alberta. These effects were evident in the early harvested barley. In contrast, the eastern and northern regions of the prairies were not as badly impacted; they achieved high yields and good quality, improving the overall average quality of Canadian 2024 malting barley supplies.

The 2024 Canadian malting barley crop can be characterized as follows:

  • Higher than average protein content
  • Lower than average plump kernels
  • Lower than average test weight and 1,000 kernel weight
  • Very good germination energy
  • Limited presence of DON

Protein Content

According to the CGC Grain Research Laboratory’s (GRL) Harvest Sample Program, the 2024 barley harvest achieved an average protein content of 13.2%—the highest over the past 10 years except for 2021—and well above the 10-year average of 12.3%. For barley selected for malting, GRL data indicated an average protein of 12.3%, up from 12.1% last year and similar to 2022, though still above the 10-year average of 11.9%.

Source: CGC Quality of Western Canadian Barley 2024 

Analyzing protein content by variety, the CMBTC’s results from selected barley samples indicate that CDC Copeland has higher protein content, likely impacted more than newer varieties by the dry, hot weather. In contrast, CDC Fraser shows the lowest protein content.

Protein Content of Major Malting Varieties – 2024 Crop 

Source: CMBTC Crop Collect program Physical Characteristics

The growing season’s weather also impacted the plumpness of the 2024 malting barley crop, leading to below-average results. Varieties like Copeland, and to a lesser extent Churchill, experienced the greatest impact.

Plumpness of Major Malting Varieties – 2024 Crop 

Source: CMBTC Crop Collect program 

According to the GRL’s Quality of Western Canadian Barley report, test weight and thousand kernel weight were also significantly impacted recording the lowest levels in 10 years.  It is of note that the early harvested samples may be more heavily weighted in these results which were published on October 15th, as later harvested varieties showed more average test weight and 1,000 kernel weight which may lead to revisions in the final report.

2024 Test Weight and 1,000 Kernel Weight of Barley Selected for Malting

Source: CGC Quality of Western Canadian Barley 2024

Germination Energy, Water Sensitivity and RVA

Overall germination of the 2024 crop is very good, and while there is some water sensitivity, RVA values are still relatively strong.

Germination Energy and Water Sensitivity – 2024 Crop 

Source: CMBTC Crop Collect program 

According to the GRL’s Quality of Western Canadian Barley report, RVA  values this year were better in Saskatchewan and Manitoba than 2023, while comparable in Alberta.  With values generally above 75 RVU, the data suggests that while there was some pre-harvest sprouting in the 2024 malting barley crop, it was not significant or widespread. 

RVA Values by Province – 2022-2024 

Looking at individual varieties, 2024 data from the CMBTC’s Crop Collect Program indicate relatively strong average RVA values across all varieties, although not surprisingly, CDC Fraser, a high-enzyme variety, reported some samples with low RVA values in 2024 and had overall lower RVU results.  

RVA Values by Major Malting Variety – 2024 Crop* 

Source: CMBTC Crop Collect program

*Data significantly different from the data set are considered outliers and are plotted as individual points. 

CROP PROGRESS REPORT

10/09/2024

This report may not be reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part without permission of the Canadian Malting Barley Technical Centre.

The barley harvest is just past the halfway point on the prairies, with the more southern areas getting into the later stages while the northern half of the growing region isn’t quite as far along. The overall pace is running at or ahead of normal in most areas. Weather has been mostly conducive to good advancement, although occasional showers have caused temporary delays. If the weather continues to cooperate the barley crop will be essentially fully harvested in the next couple of weeks.   
The latest provincial government reports show the Alberta barley harvest at 50% complete, compared to 38% on average. Saskatchewan was estimated to be 52% complete, right at the average. Manitoba was 49% complete.   

Hot and dry conditions during the summer are showing up in harvest results. A large portion of western Canada saw below-normal rainfall while also experiencing a period of very high temperatures. This caused yield expectations to get pared back after a very strong start to the growing season. It’s been common to hear reports of yields not matching what had been anticipated based on the plant stand, as well as low bushel weights and high protein content. Conditions have been variable, even within regions, which has resulted in a wide range of outcomes for both yield and quality. Farmers have been submitting harvest samples and waiting for results. The overall quality of the crop won’t be better known until samples have been analyzed on a widespread basis, and initial indications suggest there is enough good quality barley to meet maltster and exporter needs. Processors should be prepared for lower plump and test weights than normal.      
The map shows a departure from normal rainfall over the past 90 days, which represents most of the growing season for barley. Much of western Canada saw below-normal rainfall, although conditions are not as dire as in recent years in some parts of southern Alberta and southwest Saskatchewan. Very high temperatures further added to crop stress, which resulted in yield expectations coming down relative to expectations early in the season. However, yield and quality results vary widely based on local conditions.   

Statistics Canada’s initial estimate for Canadian barley production was 7.47 mln tonnes. The figure was derived using a model-based approach incorporating satellite data to the end of July. Some private estimates suggest the crop may be larger, perhaps closer to 8.0-8.5 mln tonnes. Statistics Canada will provide another production estimate on September 16th, while the advancement of harvest will also give more field results to assess yield and quality in the next two weeks.    
The initial Statistics Canada estimate for barley production was 7.47 mln tonnes. Some private estimates suggest the crop may be a little larger, perhaps closer to 8.0-8.5 mln tonnes.     

ALBERTA  

The latest Alberta Agriculture crop report released September 6th (conditions as of September 3rd) showed that warm weather has allowed harvest to advance at a rapid pace. There were some minor rain delays, but they were generally short-lived. Harvest for all crops is ahead of average, including barley at 50%, compared to a 5-year average of 25% complete. Surface soil moisture remains below normal across the province, with 42.2% of the area rated as Fair and 23.7% labelled Poor, compared to a 5-year average of 28.8% and 19.1%, respectively. While that no longer has an impact on 2024 production, it could create concerns for next season if moisture doesn’t improve going into winter. 

The Alberta Agriculture yield estimate for the province from the August 27th report put barley at 58.6 bu/acre. This is just below the initial Statistics Canada figure for the province of 60.2 bu/acre. The high degree of variability, even within a relatively small area, makes it challenging to project a yield for the province as a whole at this point. 

  Alberta Dryland Yield Estimates as of August 27, 2024   Source: Alberta Agriculture, Weekly Crop Report, August 27, 2024

Alberta Agriculture’s barley estimate from the August 27th update was 58.6 bu/acre. This is just below the initial Statistics Canada projection of 60.2 bu/acre.    

Southern Region (South of Calgary, Strathmore, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Foremost):
The total harvest for the region was estimated at 55% complete, ahead of the average of 40%. Barley was estimated at 73% finished. The province is estimating barley to yield 54.1 bu/acre for the region. Yields for all crops in the Southern Region will be up after several years of extremely dry conditions.   
2024 Barley harvest near Milk River, Alberta.  

Central Region (Airdrie, Coronation, OyenBarrhead, Edmonton, Leduc, Drayton Valley):
Showers caused some minor delays in the region, but harvest still has been making good progress, estimated 20% to 40% for all crops, with the southern portion of the region further along than the more northern parts. All areas are ahead of the normal pace. Barley was reported at 20% to 60% complete.  

The province is estimating yields of between 58 – 65 bu/acre across the region as a whole, although there are individual reports of much higher results, including over 100 bu/acre. Bushel weights are variable, with some reported as being very light while other areas are showing good quality. 

Peace River Region (Fairview, Falher, Grande Prairie, Valleyview):
Warm and dry conditions have allowed for good harvest progress in the region, at an estimated 24% complete for all crops, compared to a 5-year average of just 6%. Barley was shown at 35% complete. 

The province is projecting a barley yield of 56.3 bu/acre for the region. Reports indicate a very wide range in yields depending on local moisture conditions, with results ranging from as low as 20 bu/acre to up to 100 bu/acre in the best areas. Bushel weights are also variable depending on local growing conditions. Protein is also generally above average, although it’s dependent on conditions in the area.      SASKATCHEWAN

The Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture’s most recent crop report released September 5th (representing conditions as of September 2nd) indicated harvest has been progressing quickly throughout most of the province. Favourable weather forecasts should allow for continued rapid advancement in the coming weeks. Barley was estimated at 52% harvested for the province overall. Up to 16% of the crop is ready to straight combine, with 7% in swath and 25% standing. Some precipitation over the previous week caused temporary delays in the northern half of the province, although not to the extent that it was a significant setback. The southern part of the province was dry,
allowing for rapid advancement. 

   
Source: Saskatchewan Agriculture, Weekly Crop Report, September 5th, 2024

Parts of the northern half of the province saw precipitation that caused some temporary harvest delays, while the southern half was dry and able to make rapid progress. Harvest for the province overall is running just ahead of the normal pace.    The Ministry estimated the province’s barley yield at 63.0 bu/acre. This compares with the initial Statistics Canada estimate of 58.8 bu/acre. The report indicates that crop yields and quality have been negatively impacted throughout many regions by high temperatures during critical growing stages, although some growers are reporting yields coming in a little better than expected given the conditions. Some lodging has also been reported in some areas. Reports of light bushel weight and high protein were common in the earlier fields taken off, although that has become somewhat less frequent as harvest has progressed.   Southeast Region (Moosomin, Weyburn, Moose Jaw, Regina, Qu’Appelle, Minton):
Farmers have made considerable progress in the region over the past week. Harvesting of all crops was 47% complete as of the last update, which is ahead of the normal pace. Barley was estimated to be 69% complete, with yields indicated to be around 63 bu/acre, although yields are reported to vary throughout the region as the heat and dryness impacted crops. Farmers are waiting for sample results, with expectations that quality is favourable in areas that saw better-growing conditions. Rain would be welcome once harvest is complete to help replenish soil moisture levels. 

Northeast Regions (Foam Lake, Davidson, Canora, Tisdale, Melfort, Humboldt, Cudworth, Prince Albert):
Periodic showers caused some harvest delays, although there continues to be progress. Over 20% of the total crop was taken off as of September 2nd, just ahead of average. Barley is estimated to be just over 50% harvested. Yields are estimated at around 76 bu/acre for barley, although vary considerably, with some individual reports of over 100 bu/acre. Lodging has been reported, which is creating some challenges and slowing the pace of harvest. Anecdotal reports suggest the newer varieties with good standability did relatively better than some of the older varieties.  

Some areas indicate lighter test weights and high protein, but that varies within the region. Rain during crop ripening may have caused some pre-harvest sprouting in the later maturing fields, although that isn’t believed to be a widespread problem. Farmers are waiting for sample results to get a better assessment of their crop quality.     

Harvesting barley near Rosthern, SK August 23rd.  Yields running 90-100 bushels per acre were above average however significant lodging made combining slow and difficult.  

Southwest Regions (Assiniboia, Gravelbourg, Swift Current, Maple Creek, Leader, Rosetown, Kindersley):
The region has made substantial harvest progress as there was limited moisture to slow operations. Harvest of all crops was at 73% as of the latest report, up 30% from the previous week and ahead of average, although progress isn’t as far in the more northern parts of the region. Barley is 78% harvested, with an estimated yield of 43 bu/acre in the more southern areas, with better yields shown further north. Quality and yield have been impacted by the lack of moisture and high temperatures during the season. Topsoil moisture is shown as 41% short and 51% very short, which could lend itself to early concerns for next season if there isn’t late-season precipitation. 

Northwest Regions (North Battleford, Meadow Lake, Maidstone, Lloydminster):
Rainfall has caused some harvest delays, with the region estimated to be 19% complete for all crops, just ahead of the average pace. Barley is reported at 32% complete. Yields are variable based on local moisture totals in the region during the season, along with pockets of extensive hail loss. Barley is averaging an estimated yield of 65 bu/acre.     

MANITOBA

The Manitoba barley harvest continues to move along, with the province reported at 49% complete as of September 2nd. Barley yields are reported from 90 – 115 bu/acre, although vary based on local conditions. 
  Manitoba Spring Wheat Conditions by Region as of August 6, 2024  
Source: Manitoba Agriculture, Weekly Crop Report September 2nd, 2024

Manitoba’s barley harvest was 49% complete as of September 2nd and has made further progress since then. The Central area was the most advanced, while the Eastern region was still in the early stages. 

Western region (Brandon, Wawanesa, Parkland):
The southern part of the region has generally been experiencing good harvest weather, although heavy dew has often resulted in a slower start in the morning. Yields are described as mostly average, and quality is fairly good. There are reports of some minor chitting in later harvest barley. Barley harvest was shown at 50% complete in the southern areas, while the more northern parts were closer to 20% as of the last provincial government update.

Red River Valley Region (Portage la Prairie, Altona, Carman, Morden, Treherne):
Conditions have been favourable for good harvest progress in the region, with barley shown at 75% completed as of early September. Yields were reported in the range of 90 – 115 bu/acre, and up to as much as 130 bu/acre. Favourable weather should allow the remainder of the crop to get taken off shortly. Farmers are waiting for samples to be graded. 

Eastern region (St. Pierre-Jolys, Steinbach, Beausejour, Interlake):
Harvest progress has been disrupted in the region due to rain, although quickly resumed when conditions cleared. Barley harvest is in the early stages in the eastern part of the region, while the Interlake was closer to 40%. Initial yields are reported at between 90 to 120 bu/acre.  

CROP PROGRESS REPORT – JULY 23, 2024

26/07/2024

This report may not be reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part without permission of the Canadian Malting Barley Technical Centre.

Crop conditions remain variable across western Canada, but overall yield potential is still above average. In recent weeks parts of central and northern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan have seen minimal moisture, resulting in soils drying out. Crops are showing some signs of stress in these regions. On the other hand, rainfall has continued in the eastern prairies, keeping soils saturated. 

After a cooler than normal June, temperatures through July have increased significantly. The warmer weather has been beneficial to crop development, and while still generally considered behind normal in certain areas, growth has pushed closer to average. Regions in the west that haven’t received meaningful rainfall in recent weeks are getting concerned with soil moisture levels amid the high temperatures, while eastern areas welcomed the heat to aid crop development and dry down excess moisture. Wildfire smoke has limited some of the heat stress across the prairies. 

After below normal temperatures through much of June, daytime temperatures in the past two weeks have warmed significantly. This is having a negative effect in those areas where soil moisture is below optimal. The hot and drier conditions are speeding up crop development in nearly all regions. 

Despite the recent heat and some drier weather in western regions, crop conditions are still considered favorable in most areas, and yields continue to present average-to-above-average potential. The earliest crops are now turning color with the beginning of harvest only a few weeks away. 

ALBERTA

Recent high temperatures affected crops in the province, either leading to further progression where moisture is better or by adding to stress in the dry regions. Generally, crops are starting to show signs of heat stress, such as coming out of flower early or dropping tillers. Without meaningful moisture in the short term, continued hot weather could further deteriorate crop ratings and yield expectations.  

Alberta Sub-Soil Moisture Ratings as of July 16, 2024

Source: Alberta Agriculture, Weekly Crop Report, July 16, 2024

Subsoil moisture has deteriorated in parts of Alberta over the past few weeks. The portion of the province where soil moisture is rated as poo’ is now above the 5-year and 10-year average levels. Central regions of the province are the driest, followed by north west areas of the province.  

Alberta’s barley crop was rated 73% Good/Excellent as of July 16th, down from 76.9% two weeks ago, indicating the heat and lack of rainfall has taken some toll even as overall strong yield potential remains. The ratings by region reflect the different moisture situations. Condition rating decreases were most notable in the central and north east regions, with the crop now rated at 67.1% and 61.4% Good/Excellent, respectively. There were declines in the Peace (78.1%) and north west (75.7%) regions as well. The southern region of the province was the only one to report an improvement in barley conditions, now rated at 82.1%. Overall barley crop ratings in Alberta remain well above last year (42.2% Good/Excellent), and higher than the 10-year average (65.5% Good/Excellent). 

Southern Region (South of Calgary, Strathmore, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Foremost):

Limited rainfall and hot temperatures have significantly advanced crop growth over the past two weeks. Barley crops are beginning to turn color but still require additional moisture in order to help heads fill and maintain yield potential. Soil moisture is rated at 49% Good/Excellent, down from 62% last week. Barley ratings improved in the region despite the drop in soil moisture, now rated at 82.1% Good/Excellent, up from 78.7% in the last report. Rainfall is needed over the next week to avoid yield loss. 

Copeland turning colour near Milk River, AB July 20th, 2024.

Central Region (Airdrie, Coronation, Oyen, Barrhead, Edmonton, Leduc, Drayton Valley,):

The hot weather is starting to show its effect on crops. Cereals are still “hanging on” and yield potential remains above average today, but moisture will be needed to aid the filling of crops. Some areas received spotty showers that helped surface soil moisture increase from 58% to 60% Good/Excellent, however 35.6% of the region still has subsoil moisture levels rated as poor.  

Barley heading out near Sylvan Lake, AB July 19th, 2024. Additional rainfall will be needed to fill heads. 

Peace River Region (Fairview, Falher, Grande Prairie, Valleyview):

Hot and dry conditions for the past two weeks have taken their toll on the crop.  Rain is needed soon to avoid further deterioration of yield potential. Sporadic thunderstorms have provided some minor relief in isolated spots, but widespread rain hasn’t occurred.  

SASKATCHEWAN

The Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture’s most recent crop report as of July 15th indicated warmer weather and reduced rainfall have accelerated crop development throughout the province. Producers, especially in the south, are hoping for moisture in the days ahead to help support development and reduce yield loss. Isolated storms brought rainfall to some pockets of the province, but most regions received only trace amounts over the past week.  Topsoil moisture has started to decline, now rated at 4% surplus, 77% adequate, 19% short/very short. The warmer weather has aided development with 73% of spring cereals now considered ahead of or at normal development, while 27% of the crop is still behind.  Forecasts are calling for more heat in the days ahead, which will cause deterioration if moisture is not received. Only minor crop damage has been reported due to pests (gophers and grasshoppers) so far this season, while there has been some isolated damage from hail and wind. Fungicides continue to be applied to suppress disease development.

Source: Saskatchewan Agriculture, Weekly Crop Report, July 15th, 2024

After a cool start to the growing season, temperatures have increased in July, depleting soil moisture in some regions but advancing crop development. Hot temperatures are expected to continue in the near term.

Barley conditions in Saskatchewan improved modestly since the last report, now at 90% Good/Excellent, compared to 87.5% previously. This is well above the 10-year average of 61.6% and last year’s rating at this time of 47% Good/Excellent. However, heat has taken its toll since the last crop rating, especially in southern regions where soil moisture is generally lower. Nevertheless, overall yield expectations are still above average today. 

Southeast Region (Moosomin, Weyburn, Moose Jaw, Regina, Qu’Appelle, Minton).

Limited rainfall occurred throughout the region over the past week, while at the same time temperatures have increased. This has allowed for an improvement in crop advancement, although it is still generally behind normal. Excess moisture was a concern early in the season, but the recent hot weather has alleviated it. Cropland topsoil moisture is currently rated as 10% surplus, 69% adequate and 21% short/very short. Areas of damage were minor over the past week, with isolated incidents of hail, gophers, and grasshoppers. Producers are monitoring pest and disease pressure, and spraying is ongoing. 

Northeast Regions (Foam Lake, Davidson, Canora, Tisdale, Melfort, Humboldt, Cudworth, Prince Albert).Rainfall was variable throughout the region, ranging from trace amounts 40 mm. Hot temperatures have generally depleted topsoil moisture over the past week, with levels currently rated as 6% surplus, 88% adequate and 6% short. Recent warmer weather has allowed for quicker development, with more crops moving closer to the normal stages for this time of year. Spring cereals are now 63% ahead of normal or at normal development. The region recently experienced a windstorm that flattened crops in some areas. Barley showed varying degrees of lodging but has since mostly recovered. Disease has been noted in some areas and producers are applying fungicides. Hot weather is expected to continue, and additional moisture will be needed to maintain yield potential. 

A recent windstorm resulted in lodging of some barley crops on this farm in the region north of Saskatoon, although newer varieties stood well. AAC Prairie left, RGT Asteroid right. Mid-July 2024, near Rosthern SK.

Southwest Regions (Assiniboia, Gravelbourg, Swift Current, Maple Creek, Leader, Rosetown, Kindersley).

Limited rain fell throughout much of the region over the past week. Reduced precipitation and increased temperatures have depleted topsoil moisture. Currently, topsoil moisture is rated as 51% adequate and 49% short/very short. Crop development remains mostly unchanged compared to previous weeks, with the majority of crops falling into the normal stages for this time of year. Spring cereals are 78% ahead of or at their normal development pace. Crop stress has increased from two weeks ago. Given the hot temperatures and limited moisture, yield potential is at risk of decreasing if rain isn’t received soon. At this point yields are still anticipated to be above average, aside from pockets that have seen below average moisture. 

Northwest Regions (North Battleford, Meadow Lake, Maidstone, Lloydminster).

Rainfall was variable throughout the northwest over the past week and reductions to topsoil moisture were noted. Soil moisture is rated at 1% surplus, 86% adequate and 13% short this week. Recent warmer weather has allowed for quicker crop development with more crops moving closer to their normal stages. Spring cereals are rated at 66% ahead of or at their normal pace, while 34% are behind. Areas within the region reported minor to moderate damage from hail, wind and heat. Damage from earlier excess rain in low lying areas is still present in parts of the region, while others are showing stress from reduced moisture.

MANITOBA

The Manitoba Agriculture crop report as of July 16th showed variable rainfall during the past week, ranging from trace amounts to over 60 mm. Overall the province is maintaining wet or optimal soil moisture conditions, continuing the pattern seen all season. The recent hot weather helped to significantly advance crop growth. Most spring cereals range from flag to soft dough stages.  Spring cereals are described as mostly in good condition, but there are pockets that have suffered from excess moisture. 

Manitoba Spring Wheat Conditions as of July 16th, 2024

Source: Manitoba Agriculture, Weekly Crop Report, July 16th, 2024

Manitoba doesn’t put out a crop rating for barley, specifically. Spring wheat ratings can be used as a reasonable proxy for cereal crops in general. Overall ratings are relatively high, and better than last year at this time. 

Western region (Brandon, Wawanesa, Parkland).

Rain and hailstorms occurred over the past week with some isolated damage reported. Warm and humid conditions have advanced development. Both day and nighttime highs have been elevated. Wet fields pushed farmers to aerial spraying fungicide as disease pressure increased due to warm temperatures and high humidity. Barley crops are in the heading to early milk stage in the region.

Barley beginning to turn color near Wawanesa, MB in mid-July. Early harvest is expected to start in two weeks’ time.

Red River Valley Region (Portage la Prairie, Altona, Carman, Morden, Treherne).

Warmer temperatures this week allowed soils to dry, and standing water has mostly disappeared. However, crops in low lying areas are still showing visible water stress, along with dead spots in some fields. Over the past week rainfall has been spotty and minimal, which has been beneficial. Higher temperatures allowed for swift crop development. Staging varies greatly across the region depending on when the crop was seeded.  Early seeded barley is at the milk to soft dough stage, while later planted cereals are in the flag leaf stage.  Aerial spraying of fungicide is ongoing. 

Eastern region (St. Pierre-Jolys, Steinbach, Beausejour, Interlake).

Warmer temperatures were welcomed in the region, reducing some of the stress from excess moisture and helping advance crop development. Crops in low areas continue to show yellowing or dead spots. Wet fields are limiting fungicide applications, forcing producers to use aerial spraying in many cases. Lodging has been an issue in areas where thunderstorms have been present. Most barley crops are headed and flowering.

Barley Market Perspectives

10/03/2023

March 10, 2023

CANADA BARLEY PRODUCTION, SUPPLY & TRADE UPDATE

With a healthy sized and good quality barley crop in Canada in 2022, the industries that rely on Canadian barley including Canada’s malting industry, international customers of feed and malting barley and the grain exporters that supply them, as well as the domestic livestock sector, saw significant relief this year in the form of increased supply, replenishing severely depleted stocks after the 2021 drought.  Still barley prices remain high in Canada supported by historically strong corn and wheat values and good domestic and export demand for both feed and malting barley.

In early February, StatCan released its quarterly stocks report and updated supply and disposition figures for Canadian grains and oilseeds. Not surprisingly, barley stocks as of December 31, 2022, had increased significantly from the end of 2021, up 61% from 3.152 million (M) tonnes to 5.072 M tonnes, although this is still below the long-term historical average of around 6 M tonnes.

Source: StatCan

A majority of the Prairies received adequate moisture during the 2022 growing season (with exceptions such as SW Saskatchewan and southern Alberta) leading to good overall average barley yields estimated at just over 70 bushels per acre across Canada. A generally dry harvest (with exceptions such as parts of Manitoba) contributed to adequate supplies of good quality malting barley from the 2022 harvest. 

With a strong export pace to date (2.075 M tonnes of barley exported as of week 30 according to the Canadian Grain Commission), AAFC maintained its forecast of Canadian barley exports at 3.67 M tonnes in its February 17 grains report. The figure includes some 700,000 tonnes of processed malt (barley equivalent) exported annually, which translates into about 3 M tonnes of projected barley exports, 1 M tonnes higher than in 2021-22, and 500,000 below 2020-21.

Sources: StatCan, AAFC, CGC

With improved availability this year, exports of malt barley are projected to reach over 1.2 M tonnes, roughly the average of recent years, and a significant increase over 2021-22.  In terms of feed barley, continued strong demand early in the marketing year from China has ensured another good export program this year, although in the fall landed corn values in China dropped below barley, slowing the pace of barley purchases and imports.

Source: CMBTC Estimates

BARLEY VALUES

While feed barley prices have come off lately in the key southern Alberta market of Lethbridge market, helped by softening corn prices, barley values across the Prairies have generally been steady over the past couple of months and remain historically firm.  A weak Canadian dollar has also been supporting domestic values.  Internationally, barley prices have gradually eased since last fall. Ample supply of barley in Europe, good winter barley prospects and slow demand for malting barley so far in 2023 have pressured French prices over the past few months. In Australia, feed barley prices remain depressed by oversupply, although malting barley has firmed in recent months due to poor harvest weather in eastern Australia for the 2022 crop which tightened supply.

GLOBAL BARLEY PRODUCTION & TRADE UPDATE

In the March USDA World Markets & Trade report, global barley production in 2022 was increased slightly to 151.6 M tonnes, well above 2021 levels, when drought in North America and a smaller Russia crop reduced overall output. Australia’s crop was increased 400,000 tonnes to 14.1 M tonnes, another bumper barley crop which will keep Australia as the world’s largest barley exporter again. A big Russian crop has also resulted in a strong export program, while Argentina’s exports have been curtailed somewhat by a smaller crop due to drought during the last growing season.

The USDA is projecting global barley trade to rise year over year to 30.3 M tonnes in 2022-23, up 1.8 M tonnes from 2021-22 including an 800,000 tonnes increase in China’s projected imports to 9 M tonnes. However this looks optimistic right now, with only 1.35 M tonnes of barley imported in the first three months of the Oct/Nov year according to Chinese custom data. Still China’s demand for malting barley should remain in the 3-3.5 M tonnes range as it has in recent years. In other markets where malting barley is an important component of overall barley imports, Mexico and Vietnam imports are forecast to be strong at 500,000 and 600,000 tonnes respectively, while Brazil’s imports are forecast lower after a very strong year in 2021-22. 

In terms of exporters, with a 3rd bumper crop in a row, Australia is projected to remain the world’s largest barley exporter in 2022-23 at 8 M tonnes, followed by the EU, Russia and then Canada.  The USDA export forecast for Canada of 3 M tonnes aligns with AAFC’s export projection.  That said, both the EU and Canadian barley export pace has been strong with the potential for both of these forecasts to increase somewhat by the end of the marketing year.

OUTLOOK FOR CANADA IN 2023-24Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada are currently forecasting a small increase in barley seeded area in 2023-24. Based on trend yields, this would keep production steady in the coming year at around 10 M tonnes.  Exports are also forecast to remain strong next year, down slightly from 2022-23.

Barley Harvest Update

19/10/2022

Barley Harvest Progress Update – October 13, 2022

The 2022 crop harvest in western Canada is wrapping up, ahead of the average pace in Saskatchewan and Alberta, while Manitoba’s harvest is about 2 weeks behind normal. Generally, warm and dry weather at the end of August and through much of September on the Prairies allowed farmers to pull off much of this year’s crop without significant delays or quality issues resulting from poor weather, except in parts of Manitoba where a late start coupled with some rains and high humidity during harvest slowed progress. Precipitation in Saskatchewan in mid-September kept producers out of the fields for a few days, but many welcomed the rains after several weeks of dry weather. Some areas of the Prairies saw hard frost in mid-September however cereal crops were sufficiently advanced that neither the precipitation nor the frost is expected to have had a significant negative effect on malt barley quality. The barley harvest is now mostly wrapped up on the Prairies with a few pockets in east and west central Saskatchewan yet to be completed.

Alberta

Harvest progress continued to advance in the last week of September and early October with favourable weather conditions. Provincially 96.3% of the crops had been harvested as of October 4, similar to last year and well ahead of the historical 10-year average of 76.7%.  Well, below-normal precipitation in September allowed producers to work in the fields almost uninterrupted. Most of the barley has been harvested with yields estimated by the Government of Alberta (ASFC) at an average of 74.8 bushels per acre (4.02 tonnes per hectare), above the StatCan estimate of 71.5 bu/acre (3.85 t/ha) from their September 14 report. The absence of precipitation or significant frost events during harvest will help with the supply of good quality malting barley quality this year, much needed after last year’s drought. On September 20 ASFC reported the central region of Alberta had “significantly the highest barley quality region of the province with nearly 50 per cent expected at malt grade”.

While the dry harvest allowed producers to take the barley off in good condition, concerns are mounting over dry soil conditions in Alberta going into the winter. Precipitation will be needed this fall to help ensure fields have sufficient soil moisture for seeding in the spring of 2023.

Table 3: Alberta Surface Soil Moisture Ratings as of September 27, 2022

Source: AFRED/AFSC Crop Reporting Survey
Saskatchewan

The weather continued to cooperate for Saskatchewan producers through the end of September and into early October with over 90% of the barley crop combined as of October 3. The central and eastern regions of the province still have some crops to harvest, largely canola and flax, with most of the cereals complete. While overall average barley yields are significantly improved over the 2021 harvest, the southwest and west central regions struggled again this year with very limited rainfall. SaskAg pegs barley yields at 62.0 bu/acre or 3.34 t/ha, just above the 10-year average of 59.2 bu/acre (3.18 t/ha). StatCan estimate of barley yields is slightly higher at 64.1 bu/acre or 3.45 t/ha. Similar to Alberta, there is concern over soil moisture with cropland topsoil moisture in Saskatchewan rated as 28 per cent adequate, 41 per cent short and 31 per cent very short. Precipitation would be welcome ahead of winter. 

Manitoba

As of October 11, harvest progress for all crops in Manitoba is 79%, approximately 2 weeks behind the 5-year average of 89% complete by this time of year (week 40). Periodic rains and high humidity have slowed harvest progress and some crops were harvested tough to damp and had to be artificially dried. Killing frosts arrived in much of the western side of the province on the morning of September 22 and much of the province saw frost on September 27 but the damage is not expected to be significant. Unharvested cereals have seen some bleaching and staining due to the wet weather, especially those in the swath, with some quality downgrades in cereals expected. While much of the malt barley was harvested before the moisture in September, there are reports of some chitting in fields that were wet, often a carryover from the heavy rainfall earlier in the summer.

Harvesting AAC Connect at Wanesa, Manitoba, August 28, 2022. Good harvest weather this year allowed producers across the Prairies to get their crops off with limited interruption, benefiting malting barley quality.
Canada Barley Production & Quality Outlook

On September 14, Statistics Canada released their 2nd model-based crop production estimates for 2022 using satellite imagery to estimate yields. According to these latest figures, production of cereals, oilseed and pulses in Canada are up over 36% compared with last year when western Canada suffered a major drought. According to Statistics Canada, farmers chose to seed more wheat, in particular, this year with an area up 2.1 mln acres (838,000 hectares) or 12.8%, as well as more oats, which was reflected in lower seeded and harvested areas of other crops, with barley down 15% from 2021. But with significantly improved yields of 68.4 bu/ acre or 3.68 tonnes per hectare, barley production in Canada is projected at 9,427,840 tonnesan increase of 35.5% from 2021 and above the 5-year average of 8.871 mln tonnes.   

Table 5

In terms of output by province and region in Canada, Alberta barley production reached 4.83 mln tonnes, followed by Saskatchewan at 3.587 mln tonnes, Manitoba at 664,000 tonnes and eastern Canada seeing production drop this year to 322,000 tonnes. Despite a generally good growing season and adequate rainfall in a large area of the Prairies, the dry conditions in western Saskatchewan and southern Alberta pulled down average yields this year, with all of Canada estimated at 71.1 bu/acre or 3.83 t/ha, although some areas of central Alberta and eastern Saskatchewan saw exceptional yields this year.
Quality

Overall quality indications from the 2022 malt barley crop generally look good with low average moisture content, excellent germination energy, limited disease presence and very little pre-harvest sprouting.  The protein content is higher than average, while plump kernels and test weights are below average. The dry harvest in western Canada helped replenish short supplies of malting barley, however strong demand for feed grain will mean the malting industry will have to compete for supply with the livestock sector again this year.

CDC Fraser plot trial, St Albert, Alberta

Barley Market Perspectives – March 9, 2022

16/05/2022

BARLEY MARKET PERSPECTIVES

March 9, 2022

HIGHLIGHTS

  • According to major agriculture analytical organizations such as the USDA and the IGC, the global barley S&D is historically tight. With world ending stocks projected at 16.7 million (mln) tonnes at the end of 2021-22 according to the USDA, that would be the lowest stocks since 1983.
  • The war in Ukraine will impact the ability of both countries to export barley and other grains (corn, wheat) through the Black Sea for the foreseeable future. The two countries were projected to export 10.5 million tonnes of barley this year, almost a third of global exports.
  • With limited options to source barley before the northern hemisphere new crop, remaining supplies this year will have to come from Australia or possibly Argentina, although even the export logistics in these countries are full well into spring.
  • China’s announcement on Feb. 24 they will now accept imports of barley and wheat from all origins in Russia will undoubtedly result in greater feed barley exports from the Black Sea to China in future. Neither Ukraine nor Russia export significant quantities of malting barley. 
  • With tight barley supplies globally and recent geo-political developments, international barley prices have remained firm with French old crop feed barley rising above US $400 FOB in recent days compared with ~$300 at the beginning of 2022 and ~$250 early last August.   
Source: USDA

CANADA

On December 3rd, StatCan released its final estimates for area, yield and production of field crops in Canada for 2021.

  • Barley production estimated at 6.948 mln tonnes, including 345,000 tonnes in eastern Canada, smallest barley crop in Canada since 1967 (5.5 mln tonnes).
    • Harvested area pegged at 7.4 mln acres, the highest since 2008 (8.7 mln acres).
    • Average yields of 43.0 bushels per acre, the lowest since 2002 (41.5).
Source Statistics Canada; *Pulses include peas, lentils, beans and chickpeas.

Canada’s barley exports have been strong to date in 2021 in spite of the small crop, with Aug-Dec totaling 1.513 mln tonnes with China as the major destination. The majority of exports have been feed barley with a small amount of malting barley.

Source: Statistics Canada
  • Canada has been importing significant amounts of corn for the feed sector.  As of February 24, there had been over 1.8 mln tonnes of corn exported to Canada from the United States with another 1.6 mln tonnes of sales on the books. AAFC is projecting 4 mln tonnes of corn imports which would be the highest on record.
  • Canada will also import malting barley this year to supplement short supplies. Imports will come from origins such as the U.S., Europe and Australia. 

GLOBAL EXPORTERS

  • In its March report, ABARES (the Australian Bureau of Statistics) increased its Australian 2021 barley production estimate to 13.7 mln tonnes, the highest on record, up from 13.1 mln tonnes in 2020.
Source: ABARES

Last year (2020-21) Australia exported 8 million tonnes of barley despite a de-facto embargo on exports to China. Australian exports were redirected to Saudi Arabia, Japan, Thailand and Vietnam, among others.

Source: ABARES
  • Australia has also exported malting barley to some non-traditional destinations this year such as Mexico, Peru and Ecuador.  Exports are projected at 8.5 mln tonnes in 2021-22.
  • In spite of two successive strong export programs, Australia’s barley supplies remain healthy with carry out expected between 2-3 million tonnes at the end of the 2021-22 (estimates vary depending on the source).
  • Final estimates of Argentine 2021 barley production are 5.2 mln tonnes, the largest on record.  Total barley exports are projected at 3.65 mln tonnes, which would also be a record. With a large barley export program to China of over 2 mln tonnes, exports to traditional destinations such as Colombia, Ecuador and Peru for malting barley, and the Middle East for feed barley, have dropped significantly.    
  • EU barley exports between Jul 1 – Mar 6 totalled 5.460 mln tones, up slightly from the previous year.  With a smaller crop this year (51 mln tonnes vs 54 last year) both the USDA and the European Commission are forecasting EU barley exports down from 8.5 mln tonnes in 2020-21 to 7.5 mln tonnes in 2021-22, down, however based on the export pace to date that may be an underestimate.

CHINA

  • China’s 2020-21 barley imports (Oct-Sep) are estimated by the USDA at 12 mln tonnes, an all-time record.  All of the increase was in feed barley imports, with China generally taking 3-3.5 mln tones of malting barley annually. 
  • The USDA import forecast for the 2021-22 is 10.5 mln tonnes. With imports averaging 1.3 mln tonnes a month between Oct-Dec, this would seem an easy target, however with the disruption in the Black Sea, this may drop and China may have to look to the US and Argentina for additional corn supplies.
  • Corn prices on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange have rallied since the harvest low at the end of September of US $395 up to $450 per tonne in early March.
Source: USDA

BARLEY PRICES

  • Given the tight global S&D, barley prices have remained firm. Recent events have pushed those prices even higher with old crop French feed barley now quoted around US $400 FOB and US Gulf corn quoted at $365 FOB. New crop (2022) French feed barley is now estimated at US $350 per tonne FOB Rouen.
Sources: USDA; COCERAL

2022-23 OUTLOOK

  • AAFC released its first projections for 2022-23 supply and demand in January. The year over year changes in seeded and harvested area are not signficant, and with a return to average yields, the forecast is for barley production of 10.5 mln tonnes in 2022.  It is of note that the 2021-22 export forecast of 2.95 mln tonnes is likely on the high side by 300-400,000 tonnes, but with strong domestic demand carry out stocks of 300,000, the tighest on record, are likely in the ball park.
source: AAFC

Precipitation on the Prairies has been average to above average in Saskatchewan, below average in a lot of the major growing areas in Alberta, and a mix of average to below average in Manitoba.

  • COCERAL (an independent European agricultural trade association) is projecting EU barley area to be up slightly in 2022 to 10.75 mln hectares compared with 10.64 mln ha last year, driven by higher spring barley area, but production down to 51.5 mln tonnes (from 52.2) due to lower yields. Weather conditions have been favourable for crop development so far this winter with French winter barley rated 92% good to excellent, up from 83% a year ago. 
  • The trade has reported significant sales of 2022 crop French feed barley to China for new crop positions July forward.
  • The USDA released its first seeding estimates for 2022 with corn seeded area projected at 92 mln acres, down from 93.4 mln acres in 2021, losing area to wheat and soybeans. The 5-year average is 90.6 mln acres.

BEER

  • Canada’s beer sales have remained firm through the pandemic ending 2.4% higher year over year in 2021 vs. 2020.
  • Molson Coors reported annual revenue growth in 2021 with net sales up 6.5%, a significant turn around form 2020 when sales were down 8.7% during the pandemic. 
  • AB InBev reported an increase in the beer sales revenues in 2021, driven in part by a consumer shift to premium brands where revenues were up 20%.  Budweiser Brewing, Asia’s largest beer company by sales, said it plans to promore more high-end beer in the Chinese market having seen strong demand growth in this segment in recent years, now over 15% of the beer market.

BARLEY MARKET PERSPECTIVES – OCTOBER 4, 2021

02/12/2021

Market News 

– Both Russia and Argentina currently have barley export taxes in place. Russia increased its tax this week from US$31 to $35.30 per tonne on barley. In Argentina, the export taxes are US $36 on malting barley and $32.40 for feed barley.
– In its Sep. 10 report, the USDA estimated 2021-22 global barley carry out stocks at 17.4 mln tonnes, down from 21.4 mln tonnes at the end of 2020-21, and the tightest world barley stocks-to-use ratio in the last 15 years. 
– As of Sep. 28, the EU had exported 2.8 mln tonnes of barley, ahead of last year’s export pace at this time of 2.1 mln tonnes. Malt exports total 529,222 tonnes to date compared with 623,867 tonnes at this time last year. 
Since Aug. 1, Canada has exported 96,100 tonnes of barley, well behind last year’s pace of 310,900 tonnes by this time.
– On Sep. 16 the Buenos Aires grains exchange forecast Argentine corn production at a record 55 million tonnes. Argentina has doubled its corn output over the past 10 years. Meanwhile historically low water levels in the Parana River are making exports difficult.
– On Sep. 23, the Brazilian government suspended import taxes on corn. The second corn crop (safrinha), planted in April and harvested in Jul-Aug, was seeded late and suffered from dry conditions during the growing season, pushing production to 60 mln tonnes for the 2020-21 crop compared with 75 mln the previous year. Total 2020-21 Brazil corn crop is now estimated at 86 mln tonnes vs 102 mln tonnes in 2019-20.  
– In its Sep. 30 report, the USDA estimated US 2020-21 corn ending stocks as of Sep. 1 at 1.24 bln bushels, higher than the trade had expected putting pressure on prices. 

Supply & Demand Forecasts

In its September markets and trade report, the USDA released the following coarse grain production and trade forecasts:  Global 2021 barley production at 149.3 million tonnes, down 11 million tonnes from 2020 due to smaller crops in almost all exporting countries except Ukraine and Argentina. Canada 2021 barley production lowered to 7.8 mln tonnes from 8.8 mln tonnes a month earlier. Russia 2021 barley output reduced from 19 to 18 mln tonnes.  U.S. corn production increased to 380.9 mln tonnes, up 20 mln tonnes from last year, using yields of 176.2 bu/acre, just 0.2% below the record. China corn production at a record 273.0 mln tonnes, up 5% from 260.7 mln tonnes last year. 
In terms of trade, in its September report the USDA increased global barley trade slightly from 33.1 to 33.5 mln tonnes, but down 1.5 mln tonnes from the 2020-21 estimate of 35 mln tonnes which was an all-time record trade year for barley globally. With respect to 2021-22 global barley demand, imports are projected lower in China, North Africa and Iran in particular. With respect to 2021-22 global barley suppliers, the EU and Australia are projected to have the largest export programs at 7.3 and 7.0 mln tonnes respectively, followed by Ukraine and Russia at 6.0 and 5.0 mln tonnes respectively. Canada’s barley exports are forecast at 2.0 mln tonnes. The USDA is projecting global corn trade to increase from 183.8 mln tonnes to 192.4, with increases in exports projected from Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine. Ukraine corn exports are forecast at a record 32 mln tonnes in the coming year, up from 23.6 mln in 2020-21, putting it almost on par with Brazil.

Prices

– Although trade has been quiet, barley prices in the EU and Black Sea have been firming due to a lack of sellers as Ukraine focuses on corn exports and Russia continues to increase its export tax, now over US $35 per tonne. French malting barley prices continue to strengthen on strong export sales and quality issues as a result of rains during harvest.
– Barley prices remain firm in Western Canada as the livestock sector continues to rely on limited domestic feed barley availability and await arrival of US corn purchases, while malting and grain companies look to secure malting barley requirements from a historically small pool of supply.
– After falling to $5.10 per bushel on Sep. 9, U.S. corn futures have rallied above $5.40/bu as of Oct. 1 as U.S. farmers report disease issues and yields below expectations, Brazil and Argentina continue to be dry, and grain exports through the Gulf resumed after hurricane Ida had shut down many facilities.
– China’s Dalian January corn futures have seen a small rally of late after declining steadily from its peak of US $440 on May 12 hitting a low on Sep. 17 at $375. Currently the futures are sitting around $385. 
*Feed grain bids feedmills, feedlots, **Elevator bids
***All information sourced from Cargill, Viterra, North West Terminal, CMI Terminal, Louis Dreyfus Price and Data Quotes and Stat Publishing,****Farmer’s net cash return at Wpg elevator

2021 Canada Harvest Progress Update

Most of the barley crop in Western Canada is now in the bin. The combination of this summer’s drought followed by rain during harvest in some regions has resulted in significantly constrained malting barley supplies this year. Early quality indications suggest malting barley protein levels will average above 14% which will create headaches for maltsters and brewers in the coming year. Other parameters such as test weight, plump kernels and germination energy have been remarkably good.

Barley Market Perspective

01/10/2021

Global Barley Report – September 15, 2021
2021 PRODUCTION & SUPPLY
Argentina: After a very dry period, recent rains in Argentina have boosted crop prospects. Local Argentine analysts are now forecasting 4.5-4.8 mln tonnes of barley output.
Australia: Despite smaller seeded area in Australia (down approx. 5%), a good growing season has barley output projections rising with the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABARES) projecting a 12.5 million tonne barley crop compared with 13.1 mln tonnes in 2020. Harvest will begin in October and run through December.
Europe: On August 12, French analyst Strategie Grains reduced the EU barley production estimate by 2 million tonnes to 53 million tonnes due to wet weather in the run-up to harvesting in France and Germany while high temperatures in June lowered yields in Poland and northern Europe. 
US: US barley production is forecast by the USDA at 106 million bushels (2.3 mln tonnes), down 36% from 2020. If realized, this would be the lowest production since 1900.
World: In its September 10 report, the USDA pegged 2021 world barley production at 149.4 million tonnes, down 10.3 million tonnes from 2020 due to smaller crops in almost all exporting countries except Ukraine and Argentina.
The USDA also forecast global corn production at a record 1.198 bln tonnes, up from 1.117 bln, an increase of 81 mln tonnes or 7.25%, with record crops projected in China, Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine, and the second largest crop ever in the U.S. of 380 mln tonnes, up 20 mln tonnes from 2020 (highest was 384 mln tonnes in 2016). World wheat output is also estimated at is highest ever at 780 mln tonnes, with record crops in China, India, Ukraine and Argentina.
CANADA
On September 14, Statistics Canada released updated 2021 crop production estimates for Canada (view it here).  Barley output is estimated at 7.14 mln tonnes based on yield models using satellite imagery taken in August. On September 8, StatCan released its July 31 stocks report, with Canadian barley stocks at their lowest level on record at 711,100 tonnes, down 25.7% from a year earlier. The decrease was attributable to both lower on-farm (-19.9% to 551, 300 tonnes) and commercial (-40.5% to 159, 800 tonnes) stocks. Deliveries of barley off-farm increased 17.4% to 5.1 million tonnes, contributing to the decrease in on-farm stocks with barley exports up 54.8% year over year to 4.6 million tonnes (includes processed malt). Barley used for feed fell 10.6% year over year to 6.1 million tonnes as of July 31. 
TRADE
On September 6, Reuters news reported that Chinese importers cancelled feed barley purchases from the Black Sea in recent weeks due to weaker than expected domestic demand and expectations for a large corn crop. Ukraine exported 2.8 million tonnes of barley in July and August from their record 2021 barley crop of 10.5 million tonnes. EU barley shipments reached 2.275 million tonnes since July 1, 20% ahead of last year. Major destinations include China, S. Arabia, Jordan and Turkey. Argentina reports having sold for new crop 162, 350 tonnes of malting barley and 1,108,000 mln tonnes of feed barley for January-April 2022 positions.   In its September 10 report, the USDA projected 2021-22 global barley trade at 33 mln tonnes, down 865,000 from the previous year due primarily to China and North Africa/Middle East, but still a historically strong barley trade estimate.   
PRICES

Feed barley prices on the Prairies rose significantly during the month of August with prices in Lethbridge reaching over $9.00 per bushel. Prices have since eased slightly as corn begins to arrive in southern Alberta and producers harvest their crops. Rains have downgraded some wheat to feed adding to feed grain supplies, however with the lowest barley stocks on record as of July 31 according to StatCan, prices will remain supported throughout the year.

*Feed grain bids feedmills, feedlots, **Elevator bids
***All information sourced from Cargill, Viterra, North West Terminal, CMI Terminal, Louis Dreyfus Price and Data Quotes and Stat Publishing,****Farmer’s net cash return at Wpg elevator 
Globally both feed and malting barley prices remain strong. With rains at harvest impacting quality and strong demand for French malting barley, spreads have reached near record levels of US $50 per tonne between feed and malting barley prices in France.
2021 HARVEST PROGRESS UPDATE As of September 7, Alberta barley harvest was estimated at 56% complete. Average yields of 40.2 bushels per acre compared with the 5-year average of 72.2. As of September 6, Saskatchewan barley harvest was estimated at 66% complete. Average yields of 38.0 bushels per acre compared with the 5-year average of 67.4. As of September 6, Manitoba barley harvest was estimated at 90% complete. Average yields of 48.1 bushels per acre compared with the 5-year average of 69.8.2.

Harvest Progress Report – Sept. 3, 202

16/09/2021

September 3, 2021 – Crop conditions in Western Canada deteriorated through July and August due to severe drought which affected crop growth and development. Now rainfall is creating more concerns as farmers harvest their crops. The combination of drought and now wet harvest weather in some regions have significantly affected the size and quality of the western Canadian barley crop this year.
 
Statistics Canada projected barley production in their August 31 report at 7.8 million tonnes based on satellite imagery from July. However dry, hot weather persisted well into August and many in the industry believe Canada’s barley production will likely end up closer to 7 million tonnes.
 
The historically small crop as well as significant quality issues will make selecting malt barley a challenge for the Canadian maltsters and exporters. South of the border the US barley crop is also struggling with North Dakota and Montana also severely affected by drought conditions.

ALBERTA

In Alberta, barley harvested acreage is struggling to get to 40% complete and yields are averaging below 40 bushels per acre. Cool temperatures and wet conditions are now stalling harvest progress. Quality issues are widespread with light test weight, thin kernels and high protein count. All regions will register well below average yields.
 
South Region (Strathmore, Lethbridge, Foremost)

This region of the province was the most significantly affected with the extreme heat and lack of rainfall. Most of the barley has been harvested with yields averaging 20 bushels (this region often produces barley crops of 100 bushels per acre). Some of the barley harvested is light weight, thin and the protein levels range from 15% to 19%. There will not be much quality malt barley selected from this area. 
 
Central Region (Rimbey, Airdrie, Olds)

Precipitation and cool temperatures, while welcome, will do very little for this year’s crop other than delay harvest. This area is projected to have higher yielding barley fields than other regions in the 50 to 60 bushel per acre range. Some combines have had to sit idle for a week to ten days waiting to resume harvest. The wet conditions will produce some chitted barley. 

Combining AAC Connect, Penhold, AB, August 25, 2021
North East Region (Smoky Lake, Vermilion, Camrose, Provost)

This region had some rain events this summer which helped crop growth, however it is now experiencing precipitation and cool temperatures. The rainfall is delaying harvest and increasing the amount of barley that will be degraded due to chit. Less than 20% of the crop has been harvested and the yields are averaging in the 40–50 bushel range. 
 
North West Region (Barrhead, Edmonton, Leduc, Camrose, Athabasca)

This region also had some rains to support crop development through the summer months, but wet conditions and cool temperatures are delaying harvest. Early barley yields are averaging 45 bushels per acre, although there is some optimism that the yields will improve as harvest advances. Harvested acres are hovering slightly over 20%. 

Harvesting CDC Copeland, Edmonton area, August 25, 2021
Peace Region (Fairview, Falher, Grande Prairie)

The region is marred by wet conditions and cool temperatures which are not helping the crops dry down. Barley harvest is a less than 10% complete. Yields are estimated to be in the 30 bushel per acre range. The wet conditions will lead to some of the unharvested barley to be graded feed quality.
 
SASKATCHEWAN

In spite of recent rains across many parts of the province, harvest continues to progress quickly with barley harvest across Saskatchewan now 50% complete. The effects of the drought this summer were most damaging in the southwest part of the province. In the last 3 weeks of August, rainfall has caused harvest delays with farmers using the down time to dry their cereal grains. There have also been hail events in the past three weeks that will impact barley production. 
 
Southwest Region (Maple Ridge, Swift Current)

Many producers in this region have completed harvest, for some it was the lack of grain to harvest that permitted them to finish early, although recent rains have delayed the remaining harvest. Most crop damage this past summer was due to drought stress, along with strong winds that dried the soil and more recently hail damage. The area has also been dealing with a large grasshopper problem and producers are trying to harvest as quickly as possible before more damage is caused. 
 
Southeast Region (Weyburn, Moosomin, Regina)

Barley harvest is quickly approaching 50% complete. There was some crop damage the past few weeks due to heavy rains which also produced hail that flattened barley fields. Some producers that harvested early reported decent yields of 60-70 bushels in localized areas. The quality of unharvested will have been impacted by recent rains.

East Central Region (Yorkton, Melville)

Very little harvest progress has been made in the past two weeks as persistent rains have prevented combines from entering the fields. The weather is forecast to remain dry for the next week. Harvest progress is close to 30% with yields reported from 30-50 bushels per acre. Some usable malt barley has been harvested with a protein band from 13.5-16%. Hailstorms caused damage to some crops this past week. 

Hail Stones in the Yorkton area from August 30
West Central Region (Rosetown, Biggar, Kindersley)

The crops in this region suffered due to the intense summer heat and lack of rain. Many crops were either cut for green feed or simply left in the field as there was not much to harvest. Over 40% of the crops are harvested with barley yields being reported in the 20 bushel per acre range.  
 
Northeast Region (Tisdale, Melfort, Carrot River)

Persistent rains and cool temperatures have halted harvest. The crops are generally in poor condition and yields will be well below average. Some wet barley has been harvested and is being dried. Like other regions hail has damaged some crops in recent weeks. The forecast for the coming week is warm and sunny which will allow harvest to resume.
 
North West Region (Lloydminster, North Battleford)

Pesky rains have slowed down harvesting barley in this region, it is now about 25% complete. The temperatures are set to improve this weekend and next week moving into more seasonal average in the low 20°C, which will help dry the crop down. Harvest comprises of some dry barley, but most is damp and must be dried. 
 
MANITOBA

Barley harvest is mostly wrapped up with about 95% in the bin. Yields are variable ranging between 20-80 bushels per acre. Little to no fusarium damaged kernels in samples so far. Some downgrading is expected on unharvested crops from the recent periods of rain, although the moisture was welcome in many areas to recharge the soil. 
 
Southwest Region (Brandon, Virden, Wawanesa)

Barley harvest is largely complete in this region. Some areas received just enough rain during the growing season to produce a decent crop with a few farmers reporting barley yields faring relatively well up to 70-80 bushels per acre, while for others, severe lack of rain resulted in barley crops of 20 bushels or less. There will be some decent quality malting barley available from southwest Manitoba this year.
 
South/Central Region (Winkler, Morden)

Barley harvest is basically wrapped up in the Red River Valley. Yields have been reported from 30-80 bushels per acre. There were good pockets of malt barley that was harvested before the rains. 
 
Northwest Region (Dauphin, Swan River)

Wet weather is delaying harvest in this region, with the barley harvest now around 60% complete. Yields are below average for all crops.

Contributed by Pat Rowan

Crop Progress Report – June 24, 2021

05/07/2021

WESTERN CANADA

Decent rains in the first two weeks of June benefitted the crops and provided temporary relief to regions that were dry. The dry conditions through many parts of the Prairies have been a major concern this growing season. Now the Prairies will see hot dry weather accompanied by windy conditions for the remainder of June, which will have a significant influence on crop development. Many areas will have temperatures around 30°C-35°C, coupled with high overnight temperatures and strong winds, which will cause rapid depletion of topsoil moisture. Southern Alberta and Southwest Saskatchewan are desperately in need of rain to prevent irreversible damage, and in many areas crop yields have already been impacted. There is some precipitation in the forecast this week in these areas but it will be imperative for this moisture to materialize. The Peace Country is also extremely dry and will need rain very soon, as are parts of Southern Manitoba. General rain events of 25 mm (1 inch) will be required for each two-week interval through the end of July to prevent further yield losses in the drier areas, and there are already expectations of below-trend yields for these regions.

ALBERTA

The Central and North Central regions of the province have been the most favoured with precipitation in the last month, and this has greatly benefitted their soil moisture reserves and prospects for good crops. By contrast the Southern Region has been virtually void of rain in the last 30 days and the soil reserves are depleted. Soil moisture conditions are also very poor in a large area of the Peace Region, with the area around Dawson Creek having only received 35 mm (1 1/4 inch) of rainfall total for the May/June growing period.

Southern Region (Lethbridge, Strathmore, Foremost)

There has been a general lack of moisture in this region. Since April 1 only 48 mm (2 inches) of precipitation has fallen. Last year, the region received 109 mm (4 1/3 inches) of moisture in June and so far this June has seen only 8 mm (1/3 inch) of rain. The hot dry weather and strong winds have resulted in significant moisture depletion, with plants shutting down in some fields. For many the winter wheat crops have been devastated. More hot temperatures have entered the region this week and the forecast for rain is not promising for the remainder of the month. It looks like less than traditional yields will be the norm for this region.

Central Region (Rimbey, Airdrie, Olds)

Most parts of the region have received good rains in the last month which, coupled with some warm temperatures, has prompted good crop growth. However, some of the southern parts of the region will need rain soon. Spring seeded cereals are mostly in the tillering stage of crop development.

North Central/Northern Region (Barrhead, Edmonton, Camrose, Vermilion, Lloydminster)

Most of this region has benefitted from good rains during the growing season – 25 mm (1 inch) of rain has fallen in June, after the region received 66 mm (2 1/2 inches) of moisture in May. This precipitation, combined with some warm temperatures, have the crops progressing well. However, there are still some fields that have excessive moisture like last year.

Peace River Region (Fairview, Grande Prairie)

Soil moisture levels across much of the Peace Region are down, with a large area in the Central Peace estimated to be near a 50-year low. The crop ratings have dropped from 80% to 70% for the “good to excellent” category. Hot, windy conditions are forecast for mid-week with temperatures reaching up to 35°C, which will certainly stress the crops. Rainfall will be needed soon to avoid any further yield losses. There are some rains in the forecast for mid next week.

SASKATCHEWAN

The province has been the benefactor of some good rains in the first two weeks of June which has permitted the topsoil conditions to improve and advance the crop development. The southeast region received the most moisture, with Moosomin topping 110 mm (4 1/4 inches) while in the northwest, Lloydminster received 37 mm (1 1/2 inches). This caused flooding on some farms but overall, the rains were a benefit. Crop conditions across the province range mostly from fair to good. The strong winds and heat entering the province this week will add some stress to the crops in areas that are short on moisture, in particular the southwest.

Southwest Region (Swift Current, Maple Creek) After good rains in May, ranging between 25-50 mm (1 to 2 inches) the rains have been less generous in June, with rainfall ranging between 6-15 mm (1/2 inch). The crops are limping along and will require some rain very soon to prevent irreversible damage.

Southeast Region (Regina, Weyburn, Moosomin)

This region has received 75 mm (3 inches) in the Regina area and 110 mm (4 1/4 inches) in the Moosomin area. The crops are advancing quickly in this region because of the good moisture conditions and the heat. The barley development is in the 5-leaf stage. Rains will be needed again by early July to push the crop forward.

North Central Region (Saskatoon, Prince Albert, Tisdale)

The recent rains and warmer temperatures have been a great benefit to the crops in this region. The major drawback is that strong winds continue to plague the area, depleting soil moisture and interrupting the spraying operations. The barley crop is in the 5-leaf stage.

West Central Region (Kindersley, Rosetown, Saskatoon)

This region received spotty rainfall in the past two weeks. The Saskatoon area had rains of 38 mm (1.5 inches) and the Rosetown/Kindersley area only received 10 mm. Overall, the moisture was a benefit to the crops that were struggling due to dry crop conditions. Additional rains will be required by month end to maintain good crop development. The barley is at the 5-leaf stage.

Northeast Region (Yorkton, Melville)

Some areas of the region reported enough rainfall to allow for runoff, while others indicated what they received was hardly enough to counter the wind and heat during the week. The rainfall ranged from 12 mm (1/2 inch) to 50 mm (2 inches). The moisture was hugely beneficial for most farms in the region as the rains permitted some of the crops to recover from recent dry conditions. The heat and strong winds entering the region this week will quickly deplete the moisture. Crop conditions are very good and warm temperatures and a possible rain event this week would advance crop development nicely. Most barley fields are rated either “good” or “excellent” and the barley is at the 5-leaf stage.

MANITOBA

There have been some decent rainfall events this month, however the weather continues to be highly variable and a combination of hot temperatures and strong winds both contribute to the depletion of the topsoil moisture levels. The abnormally dry weather pattern cycle of expanding dryness has put the crops at risk especially in the southwest corner of the province. More rain will be needed soon.

Southern, Central Regions (Winkler, Morden, Brandon)

The rainfall this month has ranged from 25 mm in Morris, 50 mm in Winkler and 92 mm in the Brandon area. In most areas the crops are moving forward, however the hot windy conditions are stressing the crops. More rain is needed in the next 10 days. Some crops may be maturing quicker than normal and moving into reproductive stages faster than expected due to drought stress. The barley is in the 6-leaf stage.

Northwest Region (Dauphin, Swan River)

The region has enjoyed some good rainfall, ranging from 50-70 mm on average in June. Spring cereals across the region are moving into the stem elongation stage, leafing out, and the rows are closing. Cereals are generally in “good to excellent” condition as they have been better able to withstand the challenging spring conditions. Some wheat fields in the Dauphin area are yellowing from excess moisture due to high rainfall amounts the previous week.