Category: Members Market Updates

CROP PROGRESS REPORT – September 17, 2025

01/10/2025

This report may not be reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part without permission of the Canadian Malting Barley Technical Centre.

After getting off to a slower start than normal, barley harvest has largely caught up to the long-term average in most of western Canada, although is still behind the pace of the last several seasons. While the accumulated amounts aren’t large in most areas, there are regions where wet weather has caused delays and negatively impacted quality in some fields. The latest provincial crop reports show nearly 40% of the barley crop has yet to be harvested across western Canada, although further progress has been made since the releases.

Statistics Canada’s barley production estimate released September 17th came in at 8.23 mln tonnes, below the 5-year average of 8.95 mln tonnes , based on a yield of 68.5 bu/acre, which is above the average, but on low seeded area. The model-based figure was derived using data to the end of August. Reports suggest the final barley production number may end up being higher. Statistics Canada will give an updated survey-based estimate in early December.

EARLY QUALITY INDICATORS

Early sample results suggest very good test weights and high levels of plump kernels in the 2025 malting barley crop in western Canada. Protein levels are expected to average over 1% lower than the 13.2% recorded by the CGC in 2024* with some areas of central Alberta reporting malting barley protein between 9-11%. Germination energy is generally very high and while there are reports of some pre-harvest sprouting in eastern Saskatchewan in particular, it does not appear to be widespread. Some staining is reported due to rains in early August. With respect to disease pressure, fusarium head blight has not been a significant issue again this year although there are reports of limited presence of DON in some samples, generally below 0.5 ppm. Other diseases such as blight and blackpoint have been observed at higher levels than the past few years.

*According to the Canadian Grain Commission’s Quality of Western Canadian Barley report, the 2024 malting barley crop averaged 13.2% before being selected for malting.

ALBERTA

The Alberta crop report as of September 9th showed the barley harvest at 53% complete, with significant progress made over the past couple of weeks after getting off to a slow start. The overall provincial yield is forecast to be slightly above average based on both the initial Statistics Canada estimate (69.4 bu/acre for Alberta, compared to a 5-year average of 68.3 bu/acre after the 2021 drought year is removed), and the provincial government figure (69.1 bu/acre). Anecdotal reports suggest the final yield could end up being higher than the early estimates suggest.

The Alberta government is indicating somewhat mixed quality results from the early harvest, although pointing to a crop that is near, or somewhat above, the 5-year average. Malt quality is reported at 30%, which is very near the average of 31%, while 61% of the crop is shown to be 1CW, just above the average of 57%. Some factors impacting quality include local variability in heat and moisture stress during the grain filling stage, while some areas also saw hail damage.

Southern Region (South of Calgary, Strathmore, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Foremost)

The region shows barley at 52% harvested, which is below normal, although recent conditions have been favorable for good advancement. The latest provincial dryland yield estimate for the area is 61.4 bu/acre, which is consistent with anecdotal reports from local farmers, although there are also pockets showing record yields, including barley as high as 130 bu/acre or more on some fields. Irrigated fields are reporting average yields closer to 100 bu/acre or more, which is to be expected.

Central Region (Airdrie, Coronation, Oyen, Barrhead, Edmonton, Leduc, Drayton Valley)

The central region is showing harvest to be further along than the rest of the province overall, although also varies by local area, ranging from 68% complete in the northwest parts as of the September 9th government update, to under half finished in the southern areas. Warm and dry weather is allowing for good progress.

The region also has the highest barley yields in the province, ranging from an average of 65 bu/acre in the more northeast areas to as high as 86 bu/acre in the southern parts. Anecdotal reports affirm the strong yields, including some indicating record results on their farm at well over 100 bu/acre. Quality is also described as being very good. High temperatures will make good storage management important for the crop that is in the bin.

Peace River Region (Fairview, Falher, Grande Prairie, Valleyview):

The Peace River region was showing the barley harvest to be 53% complete as of the last provincial update, which is above average for the area. The region also faced the greatest challenges during the season due to dryness, with the average barley yield estimated at 49 bu/acre, the lowest in the province. The spotty nature of showers during the year means some farms are seeing better yields, with quality also being favoUrable.

SASKATCHEWAN

The Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture’s latest crop report showed the province’s barley crop at 51% harvested as of September 8th after two weeks of good progress, but still well behind the more typical pace of over 70% complete. The eastern part of the province has seen on and off precipitation, which has slowed harvest. Frost was also reported across a portion of the province, although it’s indicated to have had a negligible impact on quality overall.

Dry conditions have allowed for good harvest progress across much of the province, except for the more eastern regions. Recent rain has delayed advancement and may also impact quality on some crops that haven’t been taken off yet.

The provincial report put the barley yield at 71.0 bu/acre, which is slightly above the Statistics Canada figure for the province of 69.4 bu/acre. This is higher than last year and the 5-year average, indicating strong production for the province. It’s possible the final yield result is higher than the first reports indicate.

Southeast Region (Moosomin, Weyburn, Moose Jaw, Regina, Qu’Appelle, Minton)

The southeast region is generally the furthest along in the province for barley harvest, at over 60% complete in the more southern parts of the area, although not quite as far along a little further north. Yields vary within the region depending on local rainfall amounts during the growing season, although production is described as being good overall. Farmers are waiting for sample results to assess the quality of the barley crop in the region.

Northeast Regions (Foam Lake, Davidson, Canora, Tisdale, Melfort, Humboldt, Cudworth, Prince Albert)

Harvest is advancing across the region, ranging from around 50% complete in the southern areas to approaching 60% done in the more northern parts. Showers have been causing some delays more recently. The provincial government shows this region as having the highest barley yields in the province, with an average approaching 80 bu/acre or more. However, yields are variable at the local level, ranging from below average to other areas that are well above normal. In a number of cases yields are coming in above pre-harvest expectations. The August rain helped the crop fill out after a relatively dry start to the season.

Quality is also variable, with some reports of high percentages of chitting, particularly in the earlier seeded fields, although later planted fields are shown to be better. Other farms are reporting high bushel weight. A good portion of the unharvested barley will likely be feed quality due to the recent wet conditions and some hail damage. Overall quality of the crop will be better known in the coming weeks when farmers receive results from their submitted samples.

Southwest Regions (Assiniboia, Gravelbourg, Swift Current, Maple Creek, Leader, Rosetown, Kindersley)

The region is generally showing the barley harvest at around 50% complete or more as of the last provincial update, which is behind the typical pace. Harvest is further behind in the more northern parts, although good progress is being made. The barley yield was estimated at 53 bu/acre in the southern part of the region, but with higher results towards the more northern areas. Yields vary considerably across the region, although some farms are showing better results than initially expected.

Northwest Regions (North Battleford, Meadow Lake, Maidstone, Lloydminster)

Harvest is approaching half complete or more as of the last government update, with further progress having been made since then. The average yield for the area is between 60 – 70 bu/acre and can vary considerably between local areas depending on precipitation amounts during the growing season.

MANITOBA

The barley harvest is further along in Manitoba than in the other provinces, estimated at 77% complete as of the September 9th government update. Much of the province received rain over the past week, including large amounts in some local areas. A portion of the province also experienced frost. The fact much of the barley crop is already off reduces the quality impact of the rain and frost, although there could be some downgrading in fields that are unharvested.

The provincial update describes barley yields averaging between 60 – 70 bu/acre, although are higher in certain regions, including some very large yields shown in specific areas.

Western region (Brandon, Wawanesa, Parkland)

Wet conditions have slowed harvest progress, with field work limited to a couple of days at a time before being held up again. Barley harvest is about 75% complete in the more southern parts, while the northern areas are a little over 50% finished. Yields are described at around 75 – 90 bu/acre, with mostly good quality and test weights that are average or higher.

Red River Valley Region (Portage la Prairie, Altona, Carman, Morden, Treherne)

Barley harvest is around 90% complete in the area, although recent progress has been stalled by rain and frost. Yields are reported as highly variable across the region, ranging from below average to near record levels, a reflection of differing local precipitation totals throughout the season.

Eastern region (St. Pierre-Jolys, Steinbach, Beausejour, Interlake )

Barley harvest is reported to be over 80% complete across the region, although rain has disrupted progress in most areas, with frost also seen in many places. Barley yields are mostly strong, often averaging up to 110-115 bu/acre in the southeast region, and 70 – 80 bu/acre in the Interlake, although the overall average is lower. Quality is mostly reported as being quite good.

Additional information on barley production and trade is available through the CMBTC website’s Member’s Portal. Contact pwatts@cmbtc.com for your password.

The CMBTC does not offer advice or recommendations with respect to production or marketing decisions to the barley industry, and this information should not be construed as such. This report was prepared by Left Field Commodity Research.

CROP PROGRESS REPORT – June 26, 2025

04/07/2025

This report may not be reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part without permission of the Canadian Malting Barley Technical Centre.

Much of western Canada received critical moisture over the past week and while not everywhere got the amounts they were hoping for (and in some pockets perhaps too much rain fell), the precipitation was very badly needed, including in some of the key barley growing regions of the prairies. 

The latest rain was of particular importance due to the fact most of western Canada was showing soil moisture conditions as being below normal, and in some cases to the point of getting dire for the production outlook. Varying totals mean it is yet to be determined the extent to which the precipitation alleviated concerns about dryness. While areas of western Canada will be in significantly better shape, other regions will need more rain shortly.

ALBERTA

The Alberta Crop Report as of June 17^th was compiled prior to the latest rain event, and therefore highlighted mixed conditions across the province. The Central and North East regions saw some welcomed rainfall, while the South was under stress. The Peace River region has been variable, but also on the dry side. This is shown in the soil moisture ratings, where nearly two-thirds of the province was reported as being Fair or Poor, while only 36.1% was at Good or Excellent. The ratings will improve in the next update, although may vary somewhat by region.  

Alberta Surface Soil Moisture Ratings as of June 17, 2025

Most regions of Alberta were showing increasing dryness prior to the recent rain event. Soil moisture ratings reported 62.7% of the province at Fair or Poor, compared to a more typical rating of closer to 33.0%, while only 36.1% was reported as being Good or Excellent. The South showed a higher portion of its area being rated as Poor than the other regions. These ratings will improve in the next update, although may vary between regions.  

Crop condition ratings put barley in the province at 51.0% Good/Excellent, compared to a longer term average of 70.7%. The figures for all crops are very similar. Ratings vary between the different regions, but all areas are below average. 

Southern Region (South of Calgary, Strathmore, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Foremost):
Crops are progressing even though conditions in the region have been dry. Barley was reported at just 47.6% Good/Excellent, below the longer-term average. While there are reports of some pest damage, overall pressure is not particularly high. The area received meaningful rain over the weekend which may result in an improvement in soil moisture and crop condition ratings in future reports.    

Central Region (Airdrie, Coronation, Oyen, Barrhead, Edmonton, Leduc, Drayton Valley): While still below normal, the barley crop is rated higher in the Central region of Alberta than elsewhere in the province. This includes showing 60% Good/Excellent in the more eastern parts of the area, while the western and southern sections are closer to 54-55% Good/Excellent. However, there are pockets where the barley crop is described as looking very good after receiving consistent rain so far during the season, and the recent precipitation will further improve the outlook. There are other areas where dryness has caused crop stress, but many of those regions saw significant rain in recent days as well. 

Surface soil moisture ratings are between 40 – 50% Good/Excellent in the region, which is below average, although will be helped by the precipitation. Some areas got planted a little earlier than normal, which puts the crop ahead in terms of typical staging for this time of year. Fields are being scouted for disease pressure, and fungicide application will begin in early July. 

Peace River Region (Fairview, Falher, Grande Prairie, Valleyview): Conditions have been dry in the Peace River region all season, which has led to the barley crop being rated at just 34.0% Good/Excellent, the lowest in the province. Precipitation has been mixed, resulting in varying crop conditions even in relatively small local areas. This may result in quite variable staging for the crop this season. Surface soil moisture was shown to be 45.7% Good/Excellent, below normal, although recent rain will have helped. Little pest pressure is being reported. 

SASKATCHEWAN

The Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture’s crop report as of June 16^th showed dryness negatively impacting crop conditions in the province. Barley was shown at just 56.0% Good/Excellent, compared to a more typical 70% – 80% Good/Excellent. The government report was prepared prior to the latest rain event, which will improve moisture and crop conditions. However, precipitation totals varied throughout the province, with some areas receiving significant volumes that will help the production outlook, while other regions only received trace amounts, and therefore will be needing more rain to avoid further yield losses.

When looking by region, the southeast area is faring better than the rest of the province. Some pockets show notably poor barley conditions, an indication of how rainfall has been variable even at the local level. While recent rain will have helped, there are areas where more will be needed shortly.    

While the Saskatchewan barley crop was rated at just 56.0% Good/Excellent, well below normal, conditions vary within the province. The southeast generally looks better than other areas, while much of the central and western regions show varying levels of poorer ratings. Some areas are particularly challenged, and may have experienced irreversible yield loss even with the latest rainfall. Even so, the latest precipitation has been beneficial overall. 

Southeast Region (Moosomin, Weyburn, Moose Jaw, Regina, Qu’Appelle, Minton):
Crop conditions in the southeast are generally better than anywhere else in the province, including for barley, helped by regular smaller showers. Dryness will be a growing concern in some areas if more rain isn’t received shortly after weekend volumes were mixed, particularly into the more northern parts of the region. But so far growth has been good in most areas and some crops are described as being in excellent condition. Fungicide treatments will start being applied in the next few weeks as prevention for leaf disease and fusarium.  

Northeast Regions (Foam Lake, Davidson, Canora, Tisdale, Melfort, Humboldt, Cudworth, Prince Albert):
There has been beneficial rain in the region, although amounts vary, which in turn has led to varying conditions in the region. This is resulting in different levels of staging, and early emergence issues in some fields are becoming visible. In some cases initial crop stress may have caused irreversible yield damage, particularly in earlier seeded fields. The areas that got precipitation have held up better, although more rain is needed, particularly where volumes were lighter over the past few days. Overall conditions should improve with the recent rain, and with the potential for more showers in the coming days. Pest pressure is described as being minor to moderate in the region. There was also some localized hail, although overall damage was relatively limited.   

Southwest Regions (Assiniboia, Gravelbourg, Swift Current, Maple Creek, Leader, Rosetown, Kindersley):
The southwest part of the province has seen the most challenging conditions, with some pockets indicating potentially irreversible yield losses even if precipitation improves. However, there are pockets that received beneficial moisture and the crops are faring somewhat better, resulting in varying conditions in the region. This includes some areas that saw heavier volumes of precipitation, with crops responding nicely. While there has been some yield loss, there is also improvement over the past couple of weeks. Strong winds have added to the crop stress. Pest pressure is described as ranging from minor to moderate, helped by the dry conditions and new varieties being grown. Spraying operations are nearing completion. 

Northwest Regions (North Battleford, Meadow Lake, Maidstone, Lloydminster):
Like much of the rest of the province, the northwest region has suffered from a lack of rainfall, which in turn has been negatively affecting crop conditions. The dryness has also pushed crop development ahead for some of the earlier planted fields. However, this region also saw significant precipitation in recent days, which will help soil moisture and improve the production outlook.

MANITOBA

The latest Manitoba Agriculture crop report as of June 17^th showed rainfall as being isolated and variable over the preceding week. Weekend volumes also varied, ranging from as much as over 50 mm to only trace amounts. This has resulted in some parts of the province having total accumulations for the season at close to the long-term average while other areas are under 60% of normal. 

Western region (Brandon, Wawanesa, Parkland): Crops in the western region are mostly moving along at a strong pace, particularly in the southern areas that received more precipitation. The more northern parts of the region are drier and in need of rain. Spring cereals are said to range from tillering to the early stem elongation stages of development. So far there is limited disease or insect pressure. Fungicides will start being applied in the coming weeks. 

Red River Valley Region (Portage la Prairie, Altona, Carman, Morden, Treherne):
The Red River Valley shows crops as being mostly in good condition, having recovered well from some challenges very early in the season. Rainfall in the region has been close to the longer-term average, with amounts varying in recent days, although more rain would be welcomed in many areas. Spring cereals are mostly in the stem elongation stage. Herbicide application is nearly complete.  

Eastern region (St. Pierre-Jolys, Steinbach, Beausejour, Interlake):
Dryness is a challenge through much of the eastern and Interlake regions, with most areas only receiving limited rainfall in the past few days. More precipitation is needed in the region. Spring cereals are mostly at the beginning of the stem elongation stage, and herbicide application is nearly complete.  

FINAL BARLEY HARVEST REPORT

22/11/2024

This report may not be reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part without permission of the Canadian Malting Barley Technical Centre.

By early October, farmers in western Canada had essentially wrapped up the barley harvest, with only a few small pockets remaining in parts of northern Alberta and eastern Saskatchewan. 

In most regions, the season started favourably as farmers seeded crops early, particularly in the western Prairies, where dry conditions allowed them to get into their fields without difficulty. Good rains in May and June ensured the growing season got off to a good start, and farmers rated crop conditions quite high throughout the spring and early summer. 

In July, as much of western Canada moved into a hot and dry weather pattern, crop prospects shifted. Yield forecasts dropped from early expectations, and quality was negatively impacted in some regions. 

Mid-August precipitation caused headaches for farmers in some central prairie areas, resulting in pre-harvest sprouting. However, the overall damage was relatively limited. Farmers harvested the bulk of the barley in western Canada between mid-August and mid-September under relatively dry conditions.

Ultimately, the dry, hot conditions in July posed the major challenge for this year’s barley crop, which affected crops in southwestern Saskatchewan, as well as southern and central Alberta in particular. Barley from these regions tended to have thinner kernels with high protein content.  

Overall, there has also been a great deal of variability in 2024 harvest results, both across and within regions, and even at the individual farm level. In addition to local weather conditions, some reasons for the variability included timing of planting, which crops preceded barley the year prior, and other specific factors such as whether manure was applied to a specific field. 

On September 6th, Statistics Canada updated its estimate for Canadian barley production to 7.6 mln tonnes, slightly above their initial figure for the season. Yield is projected at 61.0 bu/acre, the second lowest in a decade. The figure was derived using a model-based approach incorporating data to the end of August. Some private estimates suggest the crop may be larger than the latest Statistics Canada figure, potentially 8.0-8.5 mln tonnes. The next production estimate from Statistics Canada, based on farmer surveys, will be released in early December. 

Canada Barley Production 2020-2024 

ALBERTA 

In its final 2024 crop report on October 22, Alberta Agriculture estimated the barley harvest 99.4% complete as of October 22^nd, ahead of average. The report indicated overall crop quality to be below normal, with 26 percent estimated to be grading malt, compared to 32 percent as a 5-year average, and 45 percent at 1CW, down from an average of 55 percent. 

Estimate of Crop Harvest as of October 22, 2024

The last yield estimate from the provincial government was 57.2 bu/acre, down from 61.4 bu/acre in 2023, with central Alberta having the lowest average yields of 52.6 bu/acre (70.2 bu/acre in 2023). Statistics Canada estimates Alberta’s average barley yields of 60.4 bu/acre for the province. 

Alberta Dryland Yield Estimates as of October 22, 2024 

Alberta Agriculture’s barley estimate from the October 22^nd update was 57.2 bu/acre, below the Statistics Canada projection of 60.4 bu/acre.   According to Statistics Canada, Alberta farmers seeded 9% fewer acres of barley in 2024. With a projected drop in yields, production is set to drop 15% to 4.026 mln tonnes, well below the previous 5-year average of 4.8 mln tonnes. 

Alberta Barley Production 2020-2024 

SASKATCHEWAN

By October 21, the Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture reported that crops were 100% in the bin. Farmers in the southwest and southeast regions began harvesting in early August. The early start allowed producers to get the crop off in good time and complete other fieldwork before freeze-up. Producers were looking for more rain this fall and a lot of snow over winter to improve moisture conditions for next spring.

Overall, most crops in Saskatchewan yielded above the 10-year average, but regional yields varied based on the rainfall received during critical parts of the growing season. Only durum, oats, canola, and mustard yielded lower than the 10-year average.

The final yield estimate from the Ministry for barley was 63.4 bu/acre (10-year average 59.6).  Statistics Canada is showing a yield of 61.0 bu/acre for the province in their last update.  The government estimated the quality for the province’s barley crop at 26% malt, 53% 1CW and 21% 2CW/sample. This is below the 10-year average for malt (30%).  

According to Statistics Canada, Saskatchewan farmers seeded 17% fewer acres of barley in 2024.  With a projected increase in yields compared with 2023, production is set to drop just 12% to 2.83 mln tonnes, but still well below the previous 5-year average of 3.6 mln tonnes. 

Saskatchewan Barley Production 2020-2024 

MANITOBA

By the end of September, Manitoba farmers had largely completed the barley harvest, a little ahead of average. Manitoba Agriculture estimated barley yields between 80 and 120 bu/acre, well above Statistics Canada’s estimate of 70.1 bu/acre for the province. Heavy rain slowed some of the late-harvested grains and impacted the quality of barley still in the field, although this affected only a relatively small portion of the provincial crop. Overall, malting barley quality is reported to be good, although higher levels of fusarium have been noted this year compared with the recent past.

According to Statistics Canada, Manitoba farmers seeded 25% fewer acres of barley in 2024.  With a projected drop in yields, production is estimated at 440,000 tonnes, down 34% from 665,000 tonnes last year and well below the previous 5-year average of 595,000 tonnes. 

Manitoba Barley Production 2020-2024 

QUALITY UPDATE

Dry, hot conditions in July in many parts of the prairies have led to mixed quality in the 2024 malting barley crop. The extreme July weather—depending on the timing of seeding and sub-soil moisture—reduced yields, produced thinner barley, and increased protein content in the impacted regions, particularly in the western Prairies, including southwest Saskatchewan as well as south and central Alberta. These effects were evident in the early harvested barley. In contrast, the eastern and northern regions of the prairies were not as badly impacted; they achieved high yields and good quality, improving the overall average quality of Canadian 2024 malting barley supplies.

The 2024 Canadian malting barley crop can be characterized as follows:

• Higher than average protein content
• Lower than average plump kernels
• Lower than average test weight and 1,000 kernel weight
• Very good germination energy
• Limited presence of DON

Protein Content

According to the CGC Grain Research Laboratory’s (GRL) Harvest Sample Program, the 2024 barley harvest achieved an average protein content of 13.2%—the highest over the past 10 years except for 2021—and well above the 10-year average of 12.3%. For barley selected for malting, GRL data indicated an average protein of 12.3%, up from 12.1% last year and similar to 2022, though still above the 10-year average of 11.9%.

Analyzing protein content by variety, the CMBTC’s results from selected barley samples indicate that CDC Copeland has higher protein content, likely impacted more than newer varieties by the dry, hot weather. In contrast, CDC Fraser shows the lowest protein content.

Protein Content of Major Malting Varieties – 2024 Crop 

The growing season’s weather also impacted the plumpness of the 2024 malting barley crop, leading to below-average results. Varieties like Copeland, and to a lesser extent Churchill, experienced the greatest impact.

Plumpness of Major Malting Varieties – 2024 Crop 

According to the GRL’s Quality of Western Canadian Barley report, test weight and thousand kernel weight were also significantly impacted recording the lowest levels in 10 years.  It is of note that the early harvested samples may be more heavily weighted in these results which were published on October 15^th, as later harvested varieties showed more average test weight and 1,000 kernel weight which may lead to revisions in the final report.

2024 Test Weight and 1,000 Kernel Weight of Barley Selected for Malting

Source: CGC Quality of Western Canadian Barley 2024

Germination Energy, Water Sensitivity and RVA

Overall germination of the 2024 crop is very good, and while there is some water sensitivity, RVA values are still relatively strong.

Germination Energy and Water Sensitivity – 2024 Crop 

According to the GRL’s Quality of Western Canadian Barley report, RVA  values this year were better in Saskatchewan and Manitoba than 2023, while comparable in Alberta.  With values generally above 75 RVU, the data suggests that while there was some pre-harvest sprouting in the 2024 malting barley crop, it was not significant or widespread. 

RVA Values by Province – 2022-2024 

Looking at individual varieties, 2024 data from the CMBTC’s Crop Collect Program indicate relatively strong average RVA values across all varieties, although not surprisingly, CDC Fraser, a high-enzyme variety, reported some samples with low RVA values in 2024 and had overall lower RVU results.  

RVA Values by Major Malting Variety – 2024 Crop* 

*Data significantly different from the data set are considered outliers and are plotted as individual points. 

CROP PROGRESS REPORT

10/09/2024

This report may not be reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part without permission of the Canadian Malting Barley Technical Centre.

The barley harvest is just past the halfway point on the prairies, with the more southern areas getting into the later stages while the northern half of the growing region isn’t quite as far along. The overall pace is running at or ahead of normal in most areas. Weather has been mostly conducive to good advancement, although occasional showers have caused temporary delays. If the weather continues to cooperate the barley crop will be essentially fully harvested in the next couple of weeks.   
The latest provincial government reports show the Alberta barley harvest at 50% complete, compared to 38% on average. Saskatchewan was estimated to be 52% complete, right at the average. Manitoba was 49% complete.   

Hot and dry conditions during the summer are showing up in harvest results. A large portion of western Canada saw below-normal rainfall while also experiencing a period of very high temperatures. This caused yield expectations to get pared back after a very strong start to the growing season. It’s been common to hear reports of yields not matching what had been anticipated based on the plant stand, as well as low bushel weights and high protein content. Conditions have been variable, even within regions, which has resulted in a wide range of outcomes for both yield and quality. Farmers have been submitting harvest samples and waiting for results. The overall quality of the crop won’t be better known until samples have been analyzed on a widespread basis, and initial indications suggest there is enough good quality barley to meet maltster and exporter needs. Processors should be prepared for lower plump and test weights than normal.      
The map shows a departure from normal rainfall over the past 90 days, which represents most of the growing season for barley. Much of western Canada saw below-normal rainfall, although conditions are not as dire as in recent years in some parts of southern Alberta and southwest Saskatchewan. Very high temperatures further added to crop stress, which resulted in yield expectations coming down relative to expectations early in the season. However, yield and quality results vary widely based on local conditions.   

Statistics Canada’s initial estimate for Canadian barley production was 7.47 mln tonnes. The figure was derived using a model-based approach incorporating satellite data to the end of July. Some private estimates suggest the crop may be larger, perhaps closer to 8.0-8.5 mln tonnes. Statistics Canada will provide another production estimate on September 16^th, while the advancement of harvest will also give more field results to assess yield and quality in the next two weeks.    
The initial Statistics Canada estimate for barley production was 7.47 mln tonnes. Some private estimates suggest the crop may be a little larger, perhaps closer to 8.0-8.5 mln tonnes.     

ALBERTA  

The latest Alberta Agriculture crop report released September 6^th (conditions as of September 3^rd) showed that warm weather has allowed harvest to advance at a rapid pace. There were some minor rain delays, but they were generally short-lived. Harvest for all crops is ahead of average, including barley at 50%, compared to a 5-year average of 25% complete. Surface soil moisture remains below normal across the province, with 42.2% of the area rated as Fair and 23.7% labelled Poor, compared to a 5-year average of 28.8% and 19.1%, respectively. While that no longer has an impact on 2024 production, it could create concerns for next season if moisture doesn’t improve going into winter. 

The Alberta Agriculture yield estimate for the province from the August 27^th report put barley at 58.6 bu/acre. This is just below the initial Statistics Canada figure for the province of 60.2 bu/acre. The high degree of variability, even within a relatively small area, makes it challenging to project a yield for the province as a whole at this point. 

  Alberta Dryland Yield Estimates as of August 27, 2024   Source: Alberta Agriculture, Weekly Crop Report, August 27, 2024

Alberta Agriculture’s barley estimate from the August 27^th update was 58.6 bu/acre. This is just below the initial Statistics Canada projection of 60.2 bu/acre.    

Southern Region (South of Calgary, Strathmore, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Foremost):
The total harvest for the region was estimated at 55% complete, ahead of the average of 40%. Barley was estimated at 73% finished. The province is estimating barley to yield 54.1 bu/acre for the region. Yields for all crops in the Southern Region will be up after several years of extremely dry conditions.   
2024 Barley harvest near Milk River, Alberta.  

Central Region (Airdrie, Coronation, Oyen, Barrhead, Edmonton, Leduc, Drayton Valley):
Showers caused some minor delays in the region, but harvest still has been making good progress, estimated 20% to 40% for all crops, with the southern portion of the region further along than the more northern parts. All areas are ahead of the normal pace. Barley was reported at 20% to 60% complete.  

The province is estimating yields of between 58 – 65 bu/acre across the region as a whole, although there are individual reports of much higher results, including over 100 bu/acre. Bushel weights are variable, with some reported as being very light while other areas are showing good quality. 

Peace River Region (Fairview, Falher, Grande Prairie, Valleyview):
Warm and dry conditions have allowed for good harvest progress in the region, at an estimated 24% complete for all crops, compared to a 5-year average of just 6%. Barley was shown at 35% complete. 

The province is projecting a barley yield of 56.3 bu/acre for the region. Reports indicate a very wide range in yields depending on local moisture conditions, with results ranging from as low as 20 bu/acre to up to 100 bu/acre in the best areas. Bushel weights are also variable depending on local growing conditions. Protein is also generally above average, although it’s dependent on conditions in the area.      SASKATCHEWAN

The Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture’s most recent crop report released September 5^th (representing conditions as of September 2^nd) indicated harvest has been progressing quickly throughout most of the province. Favourable weather forecasts should allow for continued rapid advancement in the coming weeks. Barley was estimated at 52% harvested for the province overall. Up to 16% of the crop is ready to straight combine, with 7% in swath and 25% standing. Some precipitation over the previous week caused temporary delays in the northern half of the province, although not to the extent that it was a significant setback. The southern part of the province was dry,
allowing for rapid advancement. 

   
Source: Saskatchewan Agriculture, Weekly Crop Report, September 5^th, 2024

Parts of the northern half of the province saw precipitation that caused some temporary harvest delays, while the southern half was dry and able to make rapid progress. Harvest for the province overall is running just ahead of the normal pace.    The Ministry estimated the province’s barley yield at 63.0 bu/acre. This compares with the initial Statistics Canada estimate of 58.8 bu/acre. The report indicates that crop yields and quality have been negatively impacted throughout many regions by high temperatures during critical growing stages, although some growers are reporting yields coming in a little better than expected given the conditions. Some lodging has also been reported in some areas. Reports of light bushel weight and high protein were common in the earlier fields taken off, although that has become somewhat less frequent as harvest has progressed.   Southeast Region (Moosomin, Weyburn, Moose Jaw, Regina, Qu’Appelle, Minton):
Farmers have made considerable progress in the region over the past week. Harvesting of all crops was 47% complete as of the last update, which is ahead of the normal pace. Barley was estimated to be 69% complete, with yields indicated to be around 63 bu/acre, although yields are reported to vary throughout the region as the heat and dryness impacted crops. Farmers are waiting for sample results, with expectations that quality is favourable in areas that saw better-growing conditions. Rain would be welcome once harvest is complete to help replenish soil moisture levels. 

Northeast Regions (Foam Lake, Davidson, Canora, Tisdale, Melfort, Humboldt, Cudworth, Prince Albert):
Periodic showers caused some harvest delays, although there continues to be progress. Over 20% of the total crop was taken off as of September 2^nd, just ahead of average. Barley is estimated to be just over 50% harvested. Yields are estimated at around 76 bu/acre for barley, although vary considerably, with some individual reports of over 100 bu/acre. Lodging has been reported, which is creating some challenges and slowing the pace of harvest. Anecdotal reports suggest the newer varieties with good standability did relatively better than some of the older varieties.  

Some areas indicate lighter test weights and high protein, but that varies within the region. Rain during crop ripening may have caused some pre-harvest sprouting in the later maturing fields, although that isn’t believed to be a widespread problem. Farmers are waiting for sample results to get a better assessment of their crop quality.     

Harvesting barley near Rosthern, SK August 23^rd.  Yields running 90-100 bushels per acre were above average however significant lodging made combining slow and difficult.  

Southwest Regions (Assiniboia, Gravelbourg, Swift Current, Maple Creek, Leader, Rosetown, Kindersley):
The region has made substantial harvest progress as there was limited moisture to slow operations. Harvest of all crops was at 73% as of the latest report, up 30% from the previous week and ahead of average, although progress isn’t as far in the more northern parts of the region. Barley is 78% harvested, with an estimated yield of 43 bu/acre in the more southern areas, with better yields shown further north. Quality and yield have been impacted by the lack of moisture and high temperatures during the season. Topsoil moisture is shown as 41% short and 51% very short, which could lend itself to early concerns for next season if there isn’t late-season precipitation. 

Northwest Regions (North Battleford, Meadow Lake, Maidstone, Lloydminster):
Rainfall has caused some harvest delays, with the region estimated to be 19% complete for all crops, just ahead of the average pace. Barley is reported at 32% complete. Yields are variable based on local moisture totals in the region during the season, along with pockets of extensive hail loss. Barley is averaging an estimated yield of 65 bu/acre.     

MANITOBA

The Manitoba barley harvest continues to move along, with the province reported at 49% complete as of September 2^nd. Barley yields are reported from 90 – 115 bu/acre, although vary based on local conditions. 
  Manitoba Spring Wheat Conditions by Region as of August 6, 2024  
Source: Manitoba Agriculture, Weekly Crop Report September 2^nd, 2024

Manitoba’s barley harvest was 49% complete as of September 2^nd and has made further progress since then. The Central area was the most advanced, while the Eastern region was still in the early stages. 

Western region (Brandon, Wawanesa, Parkland):
The southern part of the region has generally been experiencing good harvest weather, although heavy dew has often resulted in a slower start in the morning. Yields are described as mostly average, and quality is fairly good. There are reports of some minor chitting in later harvest barley. Barley harvest was shown at 50% complete in the southern areas, while the more northern parts were closer to 20% as of the last provincial government update.

Red River Valley Region (Portage la Prairie, Altona, Carman, Morden, Treherne):
Conditions have been favourable for good harvest progress in the region, with barley shown at 75% completed as of early September. Yields were reported in the range of 90 – 115 bu/acre, and up to as much as 130 bu/acre. Favourable weather should allow the remainder of the crop to get taken off shortly. Farmers are waiting for samples to be graded. 

Eastern region (St. Pierre-Jolys, Steinbach, Beausejour, Interlake):
Harvest progress has been disrupted in the region due to rain, although quickly resumed when conditions cleared. Barley harvest is in the early stages in the eastern part of the region, while the Interlake was closer to 40%. Initial yields are reported at between 90 to 120 bu/acre.  

CROP PROGRESS REPORT – JULY 23, 2024

26/07/2024

This report may not be reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part without permission of the Canadian Malting Barley Technical Centre.

Crop conditions remain variable across western Canada, but overall yield potential is still above average. In recent weeks parts of central and northern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan have seen minimal moisture, resulting in soils drying out. Crops are showing some signs of stress in these regions. On the other hand, rainfall has continued in the eastern prairies, keeping soils saturated. 

After a cooler than normal June, temperatures through July have increased significantly. The warmer weather has been beneficial to crop development, and while still generally considered behind normal in certain areas, growth has pushed closer to average. Regions in the west that haven’t received meaningful rainfall in recent weeks are getting concerned with soil moisture levels amid the high temperatures, while eastern areas welcomed the heat to aid crop development and dry down excess moisture. Wildfire smoke has limited some of the heat stress across the prairies. 

After below normal temperatures through much of June, daytime temperatures in the past two weeks have warmed significantly. This is having a negative effect in those areas where soil moisture is below optimal. The hot and drier conditions are speeding up crop development in nearly all regions. 

Despite the recent heat and some drier weather in western regions, crop conditions are still considered favorable in most areas, and yields continue to present average-to-above-average potential. The earliest crops are now turning color with the beginning of harvest only a few weeks away. 

ALBERTA

Recent high temperatures affected crops in the province, either leading to further progression where moisture is better or by adding to stress in the dry regions. Generally, crops are starting to show signs of heat stress, such as coming out of flower early or dropping tillers. Without meaningful moisture in the short term, continued hot weather could further deteriorate crop ratings and yield expectations.  

Alberta Sub-Soil Moisture Ratings as of July 16, 2024

Source: Alberta Agriculture, Weekly Crop Report, July 16, 2024

Subsoil moisture has deteriorated in parts of Alberta over the past few weeks. The portion of the province where soil moisture is rated as poo’ is now above the 5-year and 10-year average levels. Central regions of the province are the driest, followed by north west areas of the province.  

Alberta’s barley crop was rated 73% Good/Excellent as of July 16^th, down from 76.9% two weeks ago, indicating the heat and lack of rainfall has taken some toll even as overall strong yield potential remains. The ratings by region reflect the different moisture situations. Condition rating decreases were most notable in the central and north east regions, with the crop now rated at 67.1% and 61.4% Good/Excellent, respectively. There were declines in the Peace (78.1%) and north west (75.7%) regions as well. The southern region of the province was the only one to report an improvement in barley conditions, now rated at 82.1%. Overall barley crop ratings in Alberta remain well above last year (42.2% Good/Excellent), and higher than the 10-year average (65.5% Good/Excellent). 

Southern Region (South of Calgary, Strathmore, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Foremost):

Limited rainfall and hot temperatures have significantly advanced crop growth over the past two weeks. Barley crops are beginning to turn color but still require additional moisture in order to help heads fill and maintain yield potential. Soil moisture is rated at 49% Good/Excellent, down from 62% last week. Barley ratings improved in the region despite the drop in soil moisture, now rated at 82.1% Good/Excellent, up from 78.7% in the last report. Rainfall is needed over the next week to avoid yield loss. 

Copeland turning colour near Milk River, AB July 20^th, 2024.

Central Region (Airdrie, Coronation, Oyen, Barrhead, Edmonton, Leduc, Drayton Valley,):

The hot weather is starting to show its effect on crops. Cereals are still “hanging on” and yield potential remains above average today, but moisture will be needed to aid the filling of crops. Some areas received spotty showers that helped surface soil moisture increase from 58% to 60% Good/Excellent, however 35.6% of the region still has subsoil moisture levels rated as poor.  

Barley heading out near Sylvan Lake, AB July 19^th, 2024. Additional rainfall will be needed to fill heads. 

Peace River Region (Fairview, Falher, Grande Prairie, Valleyview):

Hot and dry conditions for the past two weeks have taken their toll on the crop.  Rain is needed soon to avoid further deterioration of yield potential. Sporadic thunderstorms have provided some minor relief in isolated spots, but widespread rain hasn’t occurred.  

SASKATCHEWAN

The Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture’s most recent crop report as of July 15^th indicated warmer weather and reduced rainfall have accelerated crop development throughout the province. Producers, especially in the south, are hoping for moisture in the days ahead to help support development and reduce yield loss. Isolated storms brought rainfall to some pockets of the province, but most regions received only trace amounts over the past week.  Topsoil moisture has started to decline, now rated at 4% surplus, 77% adequate, 19% short/very short. The warmer weather has aided development with 73% of spring cereals now considered ahead of or at normal development, while 27% of the crop is still behind.  Forecasts are calling for more heat in the days ahead, which will cause deterioration if moisture is not received. Only minor crop damage has been reported due to pests (gophers and grasshoppers) so far this season, while there has been some isolated damage from hail and wind. Fungicides continue to be applied to suppress disease development.

Source: Saskatchewan Agriculture, Weekly Crop Report, July 15^th, 2024

After a cool start to the growing season, temperatures have increased in July, depleting soil moisture in some regions but advancing crop development. Hot temperatures are expected to continue in the near term.

Barley conditions in Saskatchewan improved modestly since the last report, now at 90% Good/Excellent, compared to 87.5% previously. This is well above the 10-year average of 61.6% and last year’s rating at this time of 47% Good/Excellent. However, heat has taken its toll since the last crop rating, especially in southern regions where soil moisture is generally lower. Nevertheless, overall yield expectations are still above average today. 

Southeast Region (Moosomin, Weyburn, Moose Jaw, Regina, Qu’Appelle, Minton).

Limited rainfall occurred throughout the region over the past week, while at the same time temperatures have increased. This has allowed for an improvement in crop advancement, although it is still generally behind normal. Excess moisture was a concern early in the season, but the recent hot weather has alleviated it. Cropland topsoil moisture is currently rated as 10% surplus, 69% adequate and 21% short/very short. Areas of damage were minor over the past week, with isolated incidents of hail, gophers, and grasshoppers. Producers are monitoring pest and disease pressure, and spraying is ongoing. 

Northeast Regions (Foam Lake, Davidson, Canora, Tisdale, Melfort, Humboldt, Cudworth, Prince Albert).Rainfall was variable throughout the region, ranging from trace amounts 40 mm. Hot temperatures have generally depleted topsoil moisture over the past week, with levels currently rated as 6% surplus, 88% adequate and 6% short. Recent warmer weather has allowed for quicker development, with more crops moving closer to the normal stages for this time of year. Spring cereals are now 63% ahead of normal or at normal development. The region recently experienced a windstorm that flattened crops in some areas. Barley showed varying degrees of lodging but has since mostly recovered. Disease has been noted in some areas and producers are applying fungicides. Hot weather is expected to continue, and additional moisture will be needed to maintain yield potential. 

A recent windstorm resulted in lodging of some barley crops on this farm in the region north of Saskatoon, although newer varieties stood well. AAC Prairie left, RGT Asteroid right. Mid-July 2024, near Rosthern SK.

Southwest Regions (Assiniboia, Gravelbourg, Swift Current, Maple Creek, Leader, Rosetown, Kindersley).

Limited rain fell throughout much of the region over the past week. Reduced precipitation and increased temperatures have depleted topsoil moisture. Currently, topsoil moisture is rated as 51% adequate and 49% short/very short. Crop development remains mostly unchanged compared to previous weeks, with the majority of crops falling into the normal stages for this time of year. Spring cereals are 78% ahead of or at their normal development pace. Crop stress has increased from two weeks ago. Given the hot temperatures and limited moisture, yield potential is at risk of decreasing if rain isn’t received soon. At this point yields are still anticipated to be above average, aside from pockets that have seen below average moisture. 

Northwest Regions (North Battleford, Meadow Lake, Maidstone, Lloydminster).

Rainfall was variable throughout the northwest over the past week and reductions to topsoil moisture were noted. Soil moisture is rated at 1% surplus, 86% adequate and 13% short this week. Recent warmer weather has allowed for quicker crop development with more crops moving closer to their normal stages. Spring cereals are rated at 66% ahead of or at their normal pace, while 34% are behind. Areas within the region reported minor to moderate damage from hail, wind and heat. Damage from earlier excess rain in low lying areas is still present in parts of the region, while others are showing stress from reduced moisture.

MANITOBA

The Manitoba Agriculture crop report as of July 16^th showed variable rainfall during the past week, ranging from trace amounts to over 60 mm. Overall the province is maintaining wet or optimal soil moisture conditions, continuing the pattern seen all season. The recent hot weather helped to significantly advance crop growth. Most spring cereals range from flag to soft dough stages.  Spring cereals are described as mostly in good condition, but there are pockets that have suffered from excess moisture. 

Manitoba Spring Wheat Conditions as of July 16^th, 2024

Source: Manitoba Agriculture, Weekly Crop Report, July 16^th, 2024

Manitoba doesn’t put out a crop rating for barley, specifically. Spring wheat ratings can be used as a reasonable proxy for cereal crops in general. Overall ratings are relatively high, and better than last year at this time. 

Western region (Brandon, Wawanesa, Parkland).

Rain and hailstorms occurred over the past week with some isolated damage reported. Warm and humid conditions have advanced development. Both day and nighttime highs have been elevated. Wet fields pushed farmers to aerial spraying fungicide as disease pressure increased due to warm temperatures and high humidity. Barley crops are in the heading to early milk stage in the region.

Barley beginning to turn color near Wawanesa, MB in mid-July. Early harvest is expected to start in two weeks’ time.

Red River Valley Region (Portage la Prairie, Altona, Carman, Morden, Treherne).

Warmer temperatures this week allowed soils to dry, and standing water has mostly disappeared. However, crops in low lying areas are still showing visible water stress, along with dead spots in some fields. Over the past week rainfall has been spotty and minimal, which has been beneficial. Higher temperatures allowed for swift crop development. Staging varies greatly across the region depending on when the crop was seeded.  Early seeded barley is at the milk to soft dough stage, while later planted cereals are in the flag leaf stage.  Aerial spraying of fungicide is ongoing. 

Eastern region (St. Pierre-Jolys, Steinbach, Beausejour, Interlake).

Warmer temperatures were welcomed in the region, reducing some of the stress from excess moisture and helping advance crop development. Crops in low areas continue to show yellowing or dead spots. Wet fields are limiting fungicide applications, forcing producers to use aerial spraying in many cases. Lodging has been an issue in areas where thunderstorms have been present. Most barley crops are headed and flowering.

Barley Market Perspectives

10/03/2023

March 10, 2023

CANADA BARLEY PRODUCTION, SUPPLY & TRADE UPDATE

With a healthy sized and good quality barley crop in Canada in 2022, the industries that rely on Canadian barley including Canada’s malting industry, international customers of feed and malting barley and the grain exporters that supply them, as well as the domestic livestock sector, saw significant relief this year in the form of increased supply, replenishing severely depleted stocks after the 2021 drought.  Still barley prices remain high in Canada supported by historically strong corn and wheat values and good domestic and export demand for both feed and malting barley.

In early February, StatCan released its quarterly stocks report and updated supply and disposition figures for Canadian grains and oilseeds. Not surprisingly, barley stocks as of December 31, 2022, had increased significantly from the end of 2021, up 61% from 3.152 million (M) tonnes to 5.072 M tonnes, although this is still below the long-term historical average of around 6 M tonnes.

Source: StatCan

A majority of the Prairies received adequate moisture during the 2022 growing season (with exceptions such as SW Saskatchewan and southern Alberta) leading to good overall average barley yields estimated at just over 70 bushels per acre across Canada. A generally dry harvest (with exceptions such as parts of Manitoba) contributed to adequate supplies of good quality malting barley from the 2022 harvest. 

With a strong export pace to date (2.075 M tonnes of barley exported as of week 30 according to the Canadian Grain Commission), AAFC maintained its forecast of Canadian barley exports at 3.67 M tonnes in its February 17 grains report. The figure includes some 700,000 tonnes of processed malt (barley equivalent) exported annually, which translates into about 3 M tonnes of projected barley exports, 1 M tonnes higher than in 2021-22, and 500,000 below 2020-21.

Sources: StatCan, AAFC, CGC

With improved availability this year, exports of malt barley are projected to reach over 1.2 M tonnes, roughly the average of recent years, and a significant increase over 2021-22.  In terms of feed barley, continued strong demand early in the marketing year from China has ensured another good export program this year, although in the fall landed corn values in China dropped below barley, slowing the pace of barley purchases and imports.

Source: CMBTC Estimates

BARLEY VALUES

While feed barley prices have come off lately in the key southern Alberta market of Lethbridge market, helped by softening corn prices, barley values across the Prairies have generally been steady over the past couple of months and remain historically firm.  A weak Canadian dollar has also been supporting domestic values.  Internationally, barley prices have gradually eased since last fall. Ample supply of barley in Europe, good winter barley prospects and slow demand for malting barley so far in 2023 have pressured French prices over the past few months. In Australia, feed barley prices remain depressed by oversupply, although malting barley has firmed in recent months due to poor harvest weather in eastern Australia for the 2022 crop which tightened supply.

GLOBAL BARLEY PRODUCTION & TRADE UPDATE

In the March USDA World Markets & Trade report, global barley production in 2022 was increased slightly to 151.6 M tonnes, well above 2021 levels, when drought in North America and a smaller Russia crop reduced overall output. Australia’s crop was increased 400,000 tonnes to 14.1 M tonnes, another bumper barley crop which will keep Australia as the world’s largest barley exporter again. A big Russian crop has also resulted in a strong export program, while Argentina’s exports have been curtailed somewhat by a smaller crop due to drought during the last growing season.

The USDA is projecting global barley trade to rise year over year to 30.3 M tonnes in 2022-23, up 1.8 M tonnes from 2021-22 including an 800,000 tonnes increase in China’s projected imports to 9 M tonnes. However this looks optimistic right now, with only 1.35 M tonnes of barley imported in the first three months of the Oct/Nov year according to Chinese custom data. Still China’s demand for malting barley should remain in the 3-3.5 M tonnes range as it has in recent years. In other markets where malting barley is an important component of overall barley imports, Mexico and Vietnam imports are forecast to be strong at 500,000 and 600,000 tonnes respectively, while Brazil’s imports are forecast lower after a very strong year in 2021-22. 

In terms of exporters, with a 3^rd bumper crop in a row, Australia is projected to remain the world’s largest barley exporter in 2022-23 at 8 M tonnes, followed by the EU, Russia and then Canada.  The USDA export forecast for Canada of 3 M tonnes aligns with AAFC’s export projection.  That said, both the EU and Canadian barley export pace has been strong with the potential for both of these forecasts to increase somewhat by the end of the marketing year.

OUTLOOK FOR CANADA IN 2023-24Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada are currently forecasting a small increase in barley seeded area in 2023-24. Based on trend yields, this would keep production steady in the coming year at around 10 M tonnes.  Exports are also forecast to remain strong next year, down slightly from 2022-23.

Barley Harvest Update

19/10/2022

Barley Market Perspectives – March 9, 2022

16/05/2022

BARLEY MARKET PERSPECTIVES

March 9, 2022

HIGHLIGHTS

• According to major agriculture analytical organizations such as the USDA and the IGC, the global barley S&D is historically tight. With world ending stocks projected at 16.7 million (mln) tonnes at the end of 2021-22 according to the USDA, that would be the lowest stocks since 1983.
• The war in Ukraine will impact the ability of both countries to export barley and other grains (corn, wheat) through the Black Sea for the foreseeable future. The two countries were projected to export 10.5 million tonnes of barley this year, almost a third of global exports.
• With limited options to source barley before the northern hemisphere new crop, remaining supplies this year will have to come from Australia or possibly Argentina, although even the export logistics in these countries are full well into spring.
• China’s announcement on Feb. 24 they will now accept imports of barley and wheat from all origins in Russia will undoubtedly result in greater feed barley exports from the Black Sea to China in future. Neither Ukraine nor Russia export significant quantities of malting barley. 
• With tight barley supplies globally and recent geo-political developments, international barley prices have remained firm with French old crop feed barley rising above US $400 FOB in recent days compared with ~$300 at the beginning of 2022 and ~$250 early last August.   

CANADA

On December 3rd, StatCan released its final estimates for area, yield and production of field crops in Canada for 2021.

• Barley production estimated at 6.948 mln tonnes, including 345,000 tonnes in eastern Canada, smallest barley crop in Canada since 1967 (5.5 mln tonnes).
  • Harvested area pegged at 7.4 mln acres, the highest since 2008 (8.7 mln acres).
  • Average yields of 43.0 bushels per acre, the lowest since 2002 (41.5).

Canada’s barley exports have been strong to date in 2021 in spite of the small crop, with Aug-Dec totaling 1.513 mln tonnes with China as the major destination. The majority of exports have been feed barley with a small amount of malting barley.

• Canada has been importing significant amounts of corn for the feed sector.  As of February 24, there had been over 1.8 mln tonnes of corn exported to Canada from the United States with another 1.6 mln tonnes of sales on the books. AAFC is projecting 4 mln tonnes of corn imports which would be the highest on record.
• Canada will also import malting barley this year to supplement short supplies. Imports will come from origins such as the U.S., Europe and Australia. 

GLOBAL EXPORTERS

• In its March report, ABARES (the Australian Bureau of Statistics) increased its Australian 2021 barley production estimate to 13.7 mln tonnes, the highest on record, up from 13.1 mln tonnes in 2020.

Last year (2020-21) Australia exported 8 million tonnes of barley despite a de-facto embargo on exports to China. Australian exports were redirected to Saudi Arabia, Japan, Thailand and Vietnam, among others.

• Australia has also exported malting barley to some non-traditional destinations this year such as Mexico, Peru and Ecuador.  Exports are projected at 8.5 mln tonnes in 2021-22.
• In spite of two successive strong export programs, Australia’s barley supplies remain healthy with carry out expected between 2-3 million tonnes at the end of the 2021-22 (estimates vary depending on the source).
• Final estimates of Argentine 2021 barley production are 5.2 mln tonnes, the largest on record.  Total barley exports are projected at 3.65 mln tonnes, which would also be a record. With a large barley export program to China of over 2 mln tonnes, exports to traditional destinations such as Colombia, Ecuador and Peru for malting barley, and the Middle East for feed barley, have dropped significantly.    
• EU barley exports between Jul 1 – Mar 6 totalled 5.460 mln tones, up slightly from the previous year.  With a smaller crop this year (51 mln tonnes vs 54 last year) both the USDA and the European Commission are forecasting EU barley exports down from 8.5 mln tonnes in 2020-21 to 7.5 mln tonnes in 2021-22, down, however based on the export pace to date that may be an underestimate.

CHINA

• China’s 2020-21 barley imports (Oct-Sep) are estimated by the USDA at 12 mln tonnes, an all-time record.  All of the increase was in feed barley imports, with China generally taking 3-3.5 mln tones of malting barley annually. 
• The USDA import forecast for the 2021-22 is 10.5 mln tonnes. With imports averaging 1.3 mln tonnes a month between Oct-Dec, this would seem an easy target, however with the disruption in the Black Sea, this may drop and China may have to look to the US and Argentina for additional corn supplies.
• Corn prices on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange have rallied since the harvest low at the end of September of US $395 up to $450 per tonne in early March.

BARLEY PRICES

• Given the tight global S&D, barley prices have remained firm. Recent events have pushed those prices even higher with old crop French feed barley now quoted around US $400 FOB and US Gulf corn quoted at $365 FOB. New crop (2022) French feed barley is now estimated at US $350 per tonne FOB Rouen.

2022-23 OUTLOOK

• AAFC released its first projections for 2022-23 supply and demand in January. The year over year changes in seeded and harvested area are not signficant, and with a return to average yields, the forecast is for barley production of 10.5 mln tonnes in 2022.  It is of note that the 2021-22 export forecast of 2.95 mln tonnes is likely on the high side by 300-400,000 tonnes, but with strong domestic demand carry out stocks of 300,000, the tighest on record, are likely in the ball park.

Precipitation on the Prairies has been average to above average in Saskatchewan, below average in a lot of the major growing areas in Alberta, and a mix of average to below average in Manitoba.

• COCERAL (an independent European agricultural trade association) is projecting EU barley area to be up slightly in 2022 to 10.75 mln hectares compared with 10.64 mln ha last year, driven by higher spring barley area, but production down to 51.5 mln tonnes (from 52.2) due to lower yields. Weather conditions have been favourable for crop development so far this winter with French winter barley rated 92% good to excellent, up from 83% a year ago. 
• The trade has reported significant sales of 2022 crop French feed barley to China for new crop positions July forward.
• The USDA released its first seeding estimates for 2022 with corn seeded area projected at 92 mln acres, down from 93.4 mln acres in 2021, losing area to wheat and soybeans. The 5-year average is 90.6 mln acres.

BEER

• Canada’s beer sales have remained firm through the pandemic ending 2.4% higher year over year in 2021 vs. 2020.

• Molson Coors reported annual revenue growth in 2021 with net sales up 6.5%, a significant turn around form 2020 when sales were down 8.7% during the pandemic. 
• AB InBev reported an increase in the beer sales revenues in 2021, driven in part by a consumer shift to premium brands where revenues were up 20%.  Budweiser Brewing, Asia’s largest beer company by sales, said it plans to promore more high-end beer in the Chinese market having seen strong demand growth in this segment in recent years, now over 15% of the beer market.

BARLEY MARKET PERSPECTIVES – OCTOBER 4, 2021

02/12/2021

Barley Market Perspective

01/10/2021